IATA estimates that the global airline industry will generate roughly USD 41 billion in net profit in 2026. Spread across an anticipated 5.2 billion passengers, that works out to only a few dollars per ticket in actual profit. It is a tiny return for a business that keeps people, goods and tourism flowing around the world, especially when compared with the sort of margins that large consumer technology companies enjoy.
Walsh has been blunt about how little airlines keep after costs. He argues that industry level margins remain meagre when set against the wider economic value created by air travel. Airlines connect labour markets, enable trade and support entire tourism-dependent economies, yet many of them are still one shock away from slipping back into losses.
The stark comparison to a phone accessory
To illustrate how skewed things have become, Walsh picked an everyday object that most travellers recognise. A simple iPhone cover, sold in an Apple store or online, can earn the company more profit than an airline makes from flying a single passenger. It is a deliberately vivid comparison, but it captures a real imbalance between high mark up consumer goods and asset heavy transport businesses.
Airlines carry the full weight of fuel bills, aircraft leases, staff wages, maintenance, insurance, safety standards and a dense web of regulations. Their suppliers, from engine manufacturers to avionics and airport service providers, often enjoy far healthier margins. Walsh has suggested that too much of the value created by air travel leaks out to those parts of the chain, leaving airlines with what is left over.
Why airlines are still weighed down
Even with demand recovering and profits projected to return, the sector is still wrestling with structural problems. Aircraft deliveries have been delayed, spare parts are harder to secure and maintenance costs have climbed. Fuel prices remain volatile and many fleets are ageing faster than airlines can reasonably replace them. IATA has also warned that gains in fuel efficiency will be modest in the near term, which limits one of the few levers carriers have to control costs.
On top of that, airlines operate in a heavily taxed and tightly regulated environment and have little flexibility when external shocks hit. They cannot adjust capacity as easily as a software firm can scale servers, and they cannot pass every extra cost on to customers without hurting demand. That leaves them with permanently thinner margins than lighter, more scalable tech businesses.
What this means for air travellers and the industry
For passengers, these thin margins do not mean bargain fares for long. When costs rise, airlines often look first to add fees, adjust cabin configurations or trim service rather than accept even smaller profits. Anyone who has paid for checked bags, seat selection or onboard meals has felt how that works in practice.
Walsh’s iPhone cover comparison is therefore less a joke and more a warning. It is meant to highlight that the economics of aviation remain fragile, even in a period of record passenger numbers. If governments want reliable connectivity and if investors want airlines that are not constantly on the brink, he argues, there will need to be changes in how the industry is taxed, regulated and supported. Otherwise, the gap between what airlines earn for carrying billions of people and what a technology giant makes from a phone accessory will only look more striking over time.
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