Chinese President Xi Jinping’s absence from the July 6-7 Brics summit in Rio de Janeiro — his first since taking power — has sparked global speculation over what prompted the unexpected no-show.
In over a decade in office, Xi never once missed a BRICS summit. Officially, Chinese officials informed Brazil that Xi had a scheduling conflict, and Premier Li Qiang — who also led China’s delegation at the 2023 G20 summit in India — represented Beijing in his stead.
But behind the scenes, more than scheduling may have influenced the decision.
According to an earlier report in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), Xi may have decided to skip the summit due to Brazil President Lula da Silva's decision to invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi for dinner.
“Speculation has circulated that Lula’s invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state dinner following the BRICS summit may have influenced Beijing’s decision, as Xi could have been ‘perceived as a supporting actor’ at the gathering," the report said.
Beijing had communicated Xi’s absence in advance, citing the fact that the Chinese leader had already met the Brazilian President multiple times recently — at the G20 summit, during a state visit to Brasília in November, and again in Beijing this May.
Still, the optics of Xi skipping an important global summit, at a time when US President Donald Trump raising alarms over the grouping, did not gone unnoticed.
Retirement or power transition?
Several media outlets have interpreted his no-show as a potential sign of his weakening grip on power — especially given the Chinese president has not appeared in public for several days.
This isn’t the first time such speculation has swirled around Xi close to high-profile events. Analysts say the lack of transparency in China’s one-party system often fuels such rumours, though few are ever confirmed.
There is also a pattern to such disappearances. In recent years, Chinese officials and celebrities have vanished from public view for days or weeks, often after falling afoul of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Most reappear eventually, often with little explanation.
Another article in the SCMP also indicated that Xi could be on his way out. "The rules may be set up to regulate the bodies because it's a key time for power transition," the Hong Kong-based website said, quoting an analyst.
Other experts suggested that Xi, regarded as the most powerful leader after CPC founder Mao Zedong, may be delegating some powers to focus on larger issues.
"It does seem that Xi might pay less attention to day-to-day details, which necessitates a policing mechanism to ensure that his policy priorities are still being carried out by lower-level officials," Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese elite politics and finance at the University of California San Diego, told the Post.
Economy on mind
Other observers have suggested that Xi is keeping his distance to take care of mounting economic challenges back at home. China's industrial profits have plummeted 9.1 per cent in May compared to last year. Sluggish consumer spending and a slowdown in the real estate market has also weighed heavy on Beijing's policymakers.
Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore told CNN, that Brics may not be Xi's greatest priority since he focuses on steering China’s domestic economy.
Meanwhile, British sinologist Kerry Brown, writing in The Telegraph, argued that speculation about Xi’s declining influence may be premature. “Are there any central leaders saying slightly discordant things? Are there any provincial leaders who are sort of acting in a more autonomous way? Are there military leaders who are [making] overt statements, which are different from the government?” Brown asked. “Currently, none of these have been detected.”
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