Iran’s decision to formally suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) marks a dangerous escalation in an already volatile standoff between Tehran, Israel, and the West. With reports that Iran has begun repairing bombed nuclear sites and may soon resume uranium enrichment, concerns are mounting that the region, and the world, could be headed toward a renewed nuclear crisis.
Law signed, IAEA frozen out
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday signed into law a bill suspending cooperation with the IAEA, after it was ratified by parliament and approved by the Guardian Council. The move comes days after the end of a brutal 12-day war, which erupted on June 13 when Israel launched a massive military campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities.
By halting its cooperation, Iran is effectively shutting the door on international nuclear oversight, undermining the core mechanism through which the world has kept its nuclear program in check since the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Fallout from the war
The crisis began with Israel’s targeted bombing raids on Iranian soil, killing top commanders and nuclear scientists. Iran retaliated with waves of drones and missile strikes on Israeli territory. As the fighting intensified, the United States entered the fray with unprecedented airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, on June 22. Over 900 Iranians were reportedly killed, while Iran’s attacks left 28 Israelis dead.
The result has been a historic rupture in Iran’s relations with the IAEA, which Tehran accuses of remaining silent in the face of the attacks on its territory. Iranian lawmakers have also linked their move to a June 12 resolution by the IAEA Board of Governors that censured Tehran for nuclear non-compliance.
In response, Iran denied IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi’s request to inspect the bombed sites – a break from years of cooperation. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi admitted there had been “serious” damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but insisted that “science and technology cannot be obliterated through bombings.”
Why the world should worry
Enrichment without oversight: Without IAEA access, there is no international verification of what Iran is doing with its uranium stockpile or enrichment levels. Iran has a known history of enriching uranium beyond the JCPOA limits. With monitoring suspended and repairs reportedly underway, experts fear Tehran could soon resume enrichment at levels closer to weapons-grade.
Collapse of non-proliferation norm: The IAEA is the cornerstone of the global non-proliferation regime. Iran’s snub sets a dangerous precedent: a country facing military pressure and international scrutiny can simply walk away from the rules. This weakens global nuclear governance, making it harder to enforce compliance elsewhere, from North Korea to potential future crises.
Tensions with Israel and US far from over: Despite a ceasefire, the animosity remains deeply entrenched. Israel and the US both believe Iran has long harboured ambitions to build a nuclear weapon – a charge Tehran denies. But given recent hostilities, there’s no trust left. Both Israel and Washington are likely to keep a close watch on Iran’s next moves, and could strike again if they believe Tehran is rearming.
IAEA itself under attack: The breakdown has also become personal. Iran has publicly attacked IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, with its ultra-conservative Kayhan newspaper calling him an “Israeli spy” who should be executed. While Iran officially denies threatening IAEA inspectors, the rhetoric has deeply alarmed Western capitals.
Grossi, in turn, has faced criticism for failing to prevent the crisis from spiralling. France, Germany and the UK have condemned Iran’s “threats” and are demanding renewed access for inspectors. But there is no sign Tehran is backing down.
What makes this moment especially dangerous is the strategic ambiguity surrounding Iran’s nuclear program post-strikes. US President Donald Trump claimed the attacks “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but Araghchi and others insist the program is far from crippled.
Now, with no inspectors and few diplomatic channels open, the world is operating in the dark. Iran may choose to rebuild its nuclear capacity in secret, or use the threat of doing so as leverage. Either scenario presents grave risks.
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