Watching the stars can be calming, until it’s not. Astronomers now have their eyes on a space rock that has shifted its aim—from Earth to the Moon. New observations from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope show asteroid 2024 YR4 may not leave the Moon untouched.
NASA's Webb Telescope Reveals Rising Lunar Collision Risk
NASA's James Webb Space Telescope tracked asteroid 2024 YR4 in May 2025, providing valuable insights into its trajectory. The asteroid had vanished behind the Sun for months before reappearing. This view could be the last until it shows up again in 2028. The new data offers a sharper look at its path. Experts say there’s now a 4.3% chance of a moon impact by 2032.
This number may seem small, but it’s serious. Back in December 2024, when YR4 was first discovered, the danger was greater. It showed a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth. That was the highest-ever Earth threat recorded on NASA’s Sentry Risk Table. Within months, this risk dropped to near zero for Earth. But the Moon’s odds have steadily gone up.
Asteroid YR4’s Size and the Science Behind the Worry
NASA and ESA estimate YR4 is about 174–220 feet wide. That’s the size of a 10-story tower. If it hits, it could cause serious damage. Because of its sun-facing orbit, the asteroid is now out of sight. It will stay hidden until it returns in 2028. Until then, the Webb telescope’s readings from March and May 2025 remain key.
If the asteroid does strike the Moon, experts say not to panic. Earth’s satellite is used to taking such hits. It has handled many over billions of years. A new one will not change the Moon’s orbit or affect Earth’s safety. Still, a direct hit would be rare—and valuable for science. It would give researchers a front-row view of a real collision event.
A Wake-up Call for Planetary Defence and Future Missions
Asteroid YR4 is now on a shortlist with rocks like Apophis. That larger asteroid once caused worry but is now ruled safe. Both cases show why early detection and action are vital. Back in 2022, NASA crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid on purpose. This DART mission proved that it’s possible to nudge an asteroid off course.
NASA and ESA have more missions in the pipeline. They plan to study Apophis up close in coming years. However, some of these plans may face cuts. The Trump-era budget proposal put several space projects at risk. One new hope is the NEO Surveyor telescope. It aims to find 90% of large near-Earth objects before they get close. The mission is set for launch no earlier than 2027.
For now, Earth is safe, and the Moon stands watch. But YR4 reminds us that the sky, though calm, must be watched closely.
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