Israeli ops in Gaza puts ceasefire in doubt: IHS Inc

David Hartwell, Middle East Analyst, IHS Inc, says that the ceasefire has been thrown into doubt early by the continued Israeli operations in Gaza. Israel’s reaction to bus bombing this morning will decide how the ceasefire talks will move.

Below is the edited transcript of his interview to CNBC-TV18. Q: Post announcement of the ceasefire there have been stray incidents of violence like bus explosion in Tel Aviv. Will the ceasefire hold?
A: Clearly, the ceasefire has been thrown into doubt early by the continued Israeli operations in Gaza. The bus bombing in Tel Aviv this morning has claimed at least 17 causalities so far. So we are in a bit of a crucial stage. I think Israel's reaction to bus bombing this morning will decide how the ceasefire talks will move. Essentially, there are two options. Either the international pressure will redouble and the ceasefire talks will continue or Israel will pull out of their ceasefire talks and the fighting will continue. Q: When do you see some clarity emerging on whether a resolution has been arrived which would possibly be sustainable?
A: We almost saw an agreement. The outline of the agreement appears to be present. I think last night there was optimism on the part of the Palestinians and the part of the Egyptians that the framework of an agreement is in place involving Egyptian assistance to Hamas to ease the blockade and Egypt also taking on the role of helping to police some of the Gaza border on behalf of the Israel and then addressing some of the longer term issues later on. So there was a framework agreement. Some of the details are there, but whether there is enough trust between Israel and Hamas at the moment to make an agreement is the key issue. Q: Will the Israel-Hamas conflict be a persistent irritant? Will it be with us now intermittently for the next many months?
A: I still think the fighting will end as quickly as it began. The rocket attacks have been growing and the trend has been increasing in last three or four months. But this type of outburst of violence fits into the pattern of Hamas-Israel violence of the past decade. The pressure tends to build to a point where almost a violent clash is a type of release mechanism for alleviating tensions and things resolve or stay deterrents between Israel and Hamas and then pressure again tends to build.
Getting a formula that enables both sides to either claim some form of victory and lay the foundation for a longer term truce remains really elusive and this is the key issue both sides are facing and the international community going forward. Q: Some oil analysts believe that the terror premium for the Middle East oil may inch up with the Hamas-Israel conflict, especially if it persists. Would you agree with that?
A: The business and oil price environment is lot affected by the unrest in the region over last 18 months. The oil price tends to be a little bit insulated from the Israeli and Palestinian conflict because it is regarded as an internal matter and therefore its international ramifications are somewhat curtailed. In terms of the oil price the bigger potential conflicts to watch are the fighting in Syria and any potential fighting with Iran in the future. Q: Would you see the Hamas-Israel conflict becoming a broader regional issue or do you think it will be contained within that region?
A: Although the political leadership in Egypt has changed dramatically in the last 18 months, Egypt’s security challenges remained the same essentially and they want to contain any conflict between Israel and the Palestinian guards to prevent it from spilling over into Egypt. It remains the same from that point of view. Many different external influences are working to contain the conflict. Q: Do you think the conflict has changed the balance of power between Hamas and Israel?
A: The aim of the Israeli operation is to re-establish its deterrent position vis-à-vis Hamas which it felt had altered in Hamas’ favour. I think because of the Hamas' ability to fire long range rockets at Israel then there was a feeling in Israel that deterrent relationship had tilted too much in Hamas' favour. I think the military operations will cease when Israel thinks that it has restored that deterrent relationship.