Polls show that UPA, Manmohan's popularity at all-time low

In the backdrop of the nation going to the polls in 2014 and the UPA's term slowly coming to a close, CNBC-TV18 spoke to a cross-section of policy-makers, representatives of industry and mediapersons to gauge the performance of the alliance.

Also Read: UPA-II at three has lost India's faith
PMEAC member Govind Rao says that the performance could have been much better, but adds that the current situation is tough. Govind Rao quips that his rating of  the government's economic performance is 'B-'.
FICCI secretary-general Rajiv Kumar bemoans that coalition partners have a much stronger leverage on government and adds that the souring of domestic investment and capital flight were biggest causes of concern for industry.

Veteran television journalist Rajdeep Sardesai opines that more than 70% believed that the Prime Minister's performance is 'very poor', 'poor' or 'average', which suggest that Manmohan Singh's personal ratings are now even lower than that of the UPA and "that is a worrying sign". Below is an edited transcript of the panel discussion. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: This poll sends out the message to the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that despite scams slowdown in the economy people have by and large been more generous towards him, but the poll is very categorically says that patience has run out they want the Prime Minister replaced? Sardesai: Absolutely. I don't think Manmohan Singh's personal ratings have ever been as down as this poll suggest. If you take just those who were asked across these cities and remember urban centers is where Manmohan Singh was seen to have a good reputation as an economic reformer, as an honest Prime Minister.
More than 70% respondent in urban centers, where Manmohan Singh was seen to have a good reputation as an economic reformer, as an honest Prime Minister, believes that his performance is very poor, poor or average, which suggest that Manmohan Singh’s personal ratings are now even lower than that of the UPA and that is the worrying sign.
People not only want him now replaced, but they seem to have lost confidence and credibility of the Prime Minister is under question perhaps for the first time as an indecisive leader. Q: Three years on, this government is not looking good on any parameter be it inflation, deficit management, weakening rupee. What is your verdict on UPA – II economic report card? Rao: The performance could have been much better than what it has been. It is difficult time because there were number of exogenous factors like commodity price increase, petroleum prices increase, crude oil prices have been at an elevated level, but at the same time quite a lot of the policy constraint came from large fiscal deficit and the government has not been able to contain the large fiscal deficit.
Certainly, macro economic management should have been much better. So there is a lot of room for improvement and it is certainly not a very satisfactory situation. Q: In 2008 the government was far more proactive. This time it seems to be floundering. All of 2011 and 2012, we have seen very little activity from the government in terms of taking tough decisions and taking control? Kumar: That's true and that was because they had got the nuclear deal already passed and also had their coalition partners with them or in the right place. At this point of time, they are undecided about the impact on their electoral prospects and on their stated agenda, programmes of inclusion etc all these steps that they require to take.
The coalition partners today have a much bigger, stronger leverage on them than they had in 2008 and that is why I have never seen that before for example the announcement of decisions and then their rollback, which has created an amazing gap in credibility of the government and this is where the main partner in the coalition has to decide whether carrying on a coalition, which will prevent it from doing the things that it needs is more important than taking the steps, which will be important for the economy, the country and perhaps for it's own electoral prospects. Q: The poll very clearly says that people do not want the UPA to return to power. There is a crisis of credibility and confidence as far as this government is concerned. But even if the UPA were to return, Manmohan Singh is not going to be back, the people want Rahul Gandhi. Is that what the poll throws up? Sardesai: That's right. And I don't think that's surprising that Rahul Gandhi is the frontrunner among UPA candidates because Rahul Gandhi is seen as a fresh face. He is not seen to be in any way associated with UPA – II, because the credibility of UPA – II is such that any minister also associated with UPA – II is questionable. Q: Interestingly Narendra Modi and a majority say that if a non-UPA government were to come to power, the people would vote for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. It sounds funny to ask you for a grade or a rating, but I am going to ask you to stick your neck out, how would you rate the UPA? Rao: My rating is a 'B-'. Q: How would you rate this government's performance? Do you think this government is already in election mode or it actually has been in election mode since 2009 because it's so consumed with the prospects of 2014 that it's only thinking about electoral performance and the politics of entitlement? Kumar: Yes. That's really a cause of real concern because, as I have often said, it is empowerment versus entitlement. Empowerment - by raising productivity, by raising employment, by raising growth rate, by improving the governance, by improving the delivery of public goods and services versus just transfer payments and entitlements.
I am actually to some extent sad because when I used to work in the ministry of finance, Manmohan Singh used to tell us that competitive populism had to be replaced by competitive good governance and I think the time has come for that.
I am convinced that the electorate will actually reward those who get into competitive good governance and make it clear that the policy that they are undertaking is for the common and greater good of the people of this country.
Therefore what we need today, is a much bigger public debate and I suppose a much more intensive public debate on the welfare aspects of these reform measures should be held at this point of time. Q: I want to come back to Rahul Gandhi. The polls seem to suggest that the UPA's chances of a return to power rests on Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister. But is Rahul the face behind the UPA’s debacle in UP and the state elections? Sardesai: That's right. But he is a younger, fresher face at the end of the day. I think people believe that if he becomes Prime Minister tomorrow it might at least bring in some energy to the government.
I think it's unlikely because at the end of the day Rahul Gandhi would be protected by the Congress in particular and will probably be protected till the 2014 elections.
Interestingly, and this also reflected in a recent CEO poll, when it comes to opposition candidates who people would want Narendra Modi as Prime Minister outscores all his rivals 2 to 1.
Here again we don't know whether the BJP will actually pitch Modi as their prime ministerial candidate. So there is a problem when it comes to the TINA (there is no alternative) factor.
Yes, Manmohan Singh's credibility is down. Rahul Gandhi is uncertain and Narendra Modi is someone whom his own party seems reluctant to position. So there is the TINA factor, which the UPA-II and indeed the political class, have to deal with.