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In a sprawling and diverse country marked by contrasting social and economic realities, political governance can be a complex matter and even a cursory glance at the history of independent India will show us how political ideologies are stretched conveniently by political parties at times to grab majoritarian power in the Parliament.
A fragmented mandate that is stitched together to form a government is rarely symptomatic of a healthy democracy but then neither is absolute majority in the absence of a credible opposition.
In this podcast, we dive deep into the question if opposition parties will be able form a credible alliance ahead of the 2019 general elections. But before that, let us first explore the absolute necessity of a strong opposition in any functioning democracy.
In 2014, The Diplomat, an online magazine rued the fact the Congress Party, was officially denied leadership of the opposition in Parliament on the technical basis that the official opposition party must have at least 10 percent of the seats in the Lok Sabha or the lower house of Parliament. The article had pointed that such a decision was hurtful to the democratic process.
The political commentator Sanjay Kumar had written, "The opposition in India plays an important role in providing practical criticism of the ruling party. It is also consulted when important appointments are made. Therefore, it is important for the opposition to have a leader who can represent the interests of the non-dominant parties in these roles. The absence of an opposition leader will weaken India as the opposition will not be able to put up a unified front against the ruling party."
The piece had further added that by denying the Congress Party — the single largest opposition party in Parliament — the position of leader of the opposition, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had chosen a confrontational path.
There was foresight in the piece because as we have seen, confrontation and not cooperation has been the keynote of parliamentary proceedings in the past few years and as news anchors scream, "If not Modi, who?" in heated prime time debates, it is obvious that a TINA narrative is already under construction. TINA of course stands for the idea ‘there is no alternative' and has been bandied around since the time of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and is rooted not in ground realities but the perception building of a supreme leader with no challenger.
The chequered history of coalitions in India
A study called Coalitions politics in India: A historical analysis by Dr. Dilbag Singh Bisla, Director, Cantre for Rajiv Gandhi Research and Studies informs of the many times coalitions have been formed to gain power but rarely, if ever, to challenge it.
The study remembers the first experience of coalition in free India in 1977, when non Congress forces united under the leadership of Morarji Desai as the Janta government. The four-party Janta government remained in power for about a year and once the no confidence motion against Desai was discussed in the lower house, he tendered his resignation. The Janta government collapsed in July 1979.
The study goes on to recall many subsequent coalitions like the one with Charan Singh as the Prime Minister in October 1979 that ended with Singh tendering his resignation even before facing the house to seek a vote of confidence. Then, there was the National Front led by V.P. Singh and Chaudhari Devilal from which BJP withdrew on ideological issues.
The study goes on to delineate subsequent governments be it the P.V. Narasimha Rao-led alliance between Congress and certain sections of the left to H.D. Deve Gowda's government formed under the banner of the United Front. In most of these cases, the faultiness were more obvious than the unity.
We quote the study, “ The United Front Government headed by H.D. Deve Gowda was like a chariot being pulled at times in different direction by 13 horses. “
There was also the brief eight sided coalition headed by I.K. Gujral from 21st April 1997 to 19 March 1998. And yet another instance when a coalition government was formed was when the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with Vajpayee at the helm, survived from 11th October 1999 to 21th May 2004.
The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), was formed in May 2004 under the leadership of Dr. Manmohan Singh. And now of course, we are watching yet another coalition in the political history of India, unfold. This BJP-led coalition was formed in May 2014 as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with the support of 28 parties.
The study is trying to make a simple point. India needs a strong opposition in Parliament and a stable government at the centre to make sure that the two together work not for political gains but for the citizens who they represent .
Two wrongs don’t make a right
The Diplomat piece we quoted from earlier also recalled how after winning an overwhelming majority of seats in Parliament in 1984, even the Congress did not allot the post of leader of the opposition to any other party.
“However, that does not mean that today India should resort to such undemocratic practices. Two wrongs do not make a right. Additionally, in the present Indian political system, the government seems legally bound to consult the leadership of the opposition in the selection of a number of crucial posts, such as the chief vigilance commissioner and the chief of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). The leader of the opposition has a defined role to play, according to some legislation, though the position is not a constitutional position. This seems to contradict the other rule that the leadership of the opposition cannot belong to a party with fewer than 10 percent of the seats in Parliament.”
The article says that India’s laws about the leadership of the opposition should be interpreted and clarified in a manner that provides for a leader of the opposition at all times.
We quote, “Denying the second-largest party in Parliament the leadership of the opposition sets the wrong precedent and dilutes democracy. A powerful opposition is necessary to check the power of the ruling party as dissent is extremely important for mature democracies to function properly.”
Now let us look at how the scattered opposition to the ruling party is marshalling its forces in the run up to the 2019 elections
A June 18, Mint report narrated how with the 2019 Lok Sabha elections less than a year away, both the Congress and the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) have started reaching out to regional parties for alliances.
While the Congress, says the piece is, trying to become the nucleus of a grand opposition alliance that is shaping up and has tasted success in the recent bypolls in Uttar Pradesh, the challenge for the party extends much beyond the state. “Congress’ prospects depend heavily on how it performs in two categories of states—one where it directly takes on the BJP and the other where it is pitted against the BJP and regional parties. In the former, the party’s performance would be mainly determined by whether the BJP manages to retain its 2014 popularity level.”
All eyes will be on nine states—Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Manipur, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand, where there will be a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress. The BJP had swept these states in 2014 and won 100 out of 106 seats.
The article explores the possibility of the Congress exploring alliances with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and smaller regional parties in these states.
We quote again, “Forging alliances will be crucial for the Congress in states such as Assam, Haryana, and Karnataka, which often see a multi-polar contest. The Congress needs to prevent a fragmentation of the opposition vote through alliances with regional parties if it hopes to improve on its 2014 performance in these states.”
In Haryana, the article points out, the Congress is already trying to make amends through a merger with Kuldeep Bishnoi’s Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC). "The party had contested the 2014 Lok Sabha election alongside the BJP and could now help the Congress on a few seats. Whether it is Maharashtra or Bihar, seat sharing will be the order of the day."
But we are splitting hairs here and without going too much into excruciating detail, the point we are making is simply this. At this time in history, no single party can come to power without streamlining its alliances with regional partners and the role of a stronger opposition can no longer be undermined.
As Sanjay Kumar, a professor and currently director of CSDS, and Pranav Gupta, a researcher with Lokniti-CSDS, say in this Mint story and we quote, “While electoral compulsions and lack of alternatives may force parties to come together, in most cases, success would depend on whether the alliance arithmetic is also accompanied with chemistry.”
The players in the ensemble cast of the 2019 elections
A recent Indian Express article reported how the mercurial West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, while openly critiquing the BJP on various issues including the humanitarian crisis triggered by the exclusion of 40 lakh people from the Assam’s National Register of Citizens (NCR) draft list, is also busy meeting potential allies.
She recently met UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi “as part of her strategy to build a federal front against the Narendra Modi-led BJP government ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.”
While the trio discussed the possibility of contesting elections together in future, given how quickly narratives change, Mamata may choose an entirely different route altogether later.
Another major contender in the 2019 could be Uttar Pradesh’s Bahujan Samaj Party leader and former Chief Minister Mayavati. She was quoted in an article in The Hindu where she said recently, “the BJP governments in the Centre and States have “worsened” the condition of the people by showing them false dreams.”
The Hindu also reported that Mayavati has indicated that the Bahujan Samaj Party will be compelled to go it alone if it does not get a respectable number of seats in the anti-BJP alliance that is shaping up before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Even though, she has repeatedly criticized instances of mob lynching in the name of cow protection and has accused BJP governments in various States of being indifferent to the problem, it is clear, that it is not ideology that governs alliances sought by her and other leaders, but power sharing.
On one hand, Mayawati has made statements about recent atrocities against SC/ST communities, tribals, backward castes, Muslims and Christians and has said and we quote, “The atrocities are going on from BJP’s inception and are a result of the party’s intention to go against the Constitution...This has been part of the basic policy of the BJP, which has assumed alarming proportions after they came to power.” Unquote.
On the other hand, she has also stated unequivocally, “Our stand is very clear that we will ally with a political party only if we get a respectable share of seats. Otherwise, our party feels it better to contest the elections alone.”
The point however remains that in a country where identity politics can sometimes over rule democratic ideals, we need many diverse voices, ideas and thought processes shaping policies about education, economics and social justice in Parliament. And that can only be possible when all parties put the interests of the voting public first from the grassroots up.
Manipulation of vote banks to bring one majoritarian idea of nationalism or identity can undermine democratic process and players like Mayavati and Mamta Bannerjee will have to come together to form a united front if they are serious about their criticism of communal incidents, demonetization, unfulfilled promises and want to avert what Mayavati calls and we quote, “the rule of mobocracy.”
Mayawati’s endorsement of the ideal of ‘Sarvajan Hitay, Sarvajan Sukhay’ (or wellbeing and progress for every one) is not much different from BJP’s “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikaas,” But it is tangible work post the elections that needs to become more important than mere sloganeering, regardless of who is indulging in it. Whether it is political players with maximum power or those on the fringes of it.
Bharatiya Janata Party President Amit Shah on the other hand is busy figuring out possible political equations too as he reaches out to likely and unlikely allies, and said recently that BJP will emerge as a strong and decisive force. He is also not averse to charting a confrontational route as was visible during a recent visit to Telangana, where he dared the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti to name a SC/ST candidate as its chief ministerial hope and dismissed Rahul Gandhi’s electoral ambitions as “daydreaming.”
More alliances..more divisions
What is ironical though is that in the name of political unity, many more divisions are created within parties. As Hindustan Times reported recently,
Shivpal Singh Yadav, younger brother of Samajwadi Party (SP) patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, decided to virtually split the party by announcing the formation of another platform, Samajwadi Secular Morcha supposedly intended to bring like-minded political groups together.
Taking advantage of situation, BJP, according to Hindustan Times, has extended tacit support to Shivpal to counter a grand alliance of opposition parties, notably the SP and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
Adding spice to the brew is the unlikely but necessary cooperation between the Yadavs with the Jatavs in UP who want to put up a united front against the BJP in the 2019 general elections. The success of their unity was visible in the Gorakhpur, Kairana and Phulpur Lok Sabha bypolls.
As the Hindustan Times astutely puts it, “At the end of the day, it is caste that clinches seats in UP.” That so many years after independence, we and our political systems are still imprisoned by caste questions is a tragedy.
The Hindustan Times quotes political expert Badri Narain and he says, “Some of these castes are numerically small, but have a huge impact in elections as they hold the veto power and vote together.”
According to him, as many as 40 Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Most Backward Castes (MBCs) don’t have a leader in a state known for its identity politics. By giving them representation in the party in various forums, the BJP is trying to win them over. The Mallahs, the Kumhars, the Binds, the Nishads and the Lohars are a case in point.
The article says that BJP is following BSP founder Kanshi Ram’s dictum of “protect the base vote and chase the core vote” and constructing a winning caste combination in each constituency.
We quote from the incisive article, “Every party is working on the caste calculus because the charisma of their leaders is not quite enough for the BJP to win 71 seats in the Lok Sabha, matching its 2014 tally, and for the Opposition to increase its 2014 tally of seven seats.”
On the other hand, the article cites SC/ST activist Satish Prakash, who believes that it is in the interest of the non-BJP parties to join hands. However, there can’t be any grand alliance without the SP and the BSP joining it.
This idea that just ideology will bring together disparate parties to unite against the BJP may be a bit naive because everyone at the end of the day will be looking for a piece of the power pie.
Meanwhile, India Today reports, that the Congress Working Committee has authorized Rahul Gandhi to take decisions on pre-poll or post-poll alliances for next year's general elections.
The broader message being that the Congress is prepared for a larger alliance to defeat the NDA in 2019.
The India Today piece quotes UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi as saying, ”To save democracy, strategic alliances need to be in place.” She also said personal ambitions would have to be kept aside and "We are committed to making alliances work.”
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee also said this week said, “The country will witness a revolution in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and people will defeat the BJP.”
As permutations and combinations are drawn and redrawn on sand, we will see as time goes by if an opposition front that is more than just need based can stand up to be counted in the 2019 elections.
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