In a historic trip Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. It is the first ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister since the two countries established diplomatic ties in 1992. The visit also comes against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which in recent days has escalated with a significant Ukrainian counter-offensive in Russia’s Kursk region and multiple drone attacks on Moscow, duly repelled by Russia's air defense systems.
Last month Modi had visited Moscow, in his first bilateral visit since assuming office for a third time, where he was warmly feted by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Modi's Kyiv visit is being perceived as a balancing act. India shares a special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia. The latter still remains India's largest defense supplier, and India has not condemned what Russia calls it "special military operations" in Ukraine; has refused to vote for any anti-Russia resolutions in the United Nations, or to adhere to any of the many sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. India has particularly benefitted from the sale of discounted Russian crude.
Modi's Moscow visit, at a time when NATO summit was being convened in Washington, was particularly criticised by the US as well as by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukraine has been reaching out to India, with foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba visiting Delhi in March, to solicit support for its position in the conflict. It is in this context that Modi's visit assumes particular salience: what can India do to resolve the conflict, Europe's biggest since World War II? The war has resulted in tens of thousands of casualties and displaced millions.
India's position on the Ukraine conflict
To be fair, India has not endorsed Russia's military operations in Ukraine. In his first meeting with Putin since the war began, on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Samarkand in September 2022, Modi had said that this was "not an era of war" and had called for diplomatic means for conflict resolution. India's position has, since, remained consistent. Even in Moscow last month Modi told Putin on open camera that "solutions are not possible on the battleground" and Moscow and Kyiv should resolve their conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. “For restoration of peace, India is ready to cooperate in all ways... India is in favour of peace.....”. Putin had thanked Modi for his interest in peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Simultaneously, Delhi has kept channels of communication open with Kyiv too. Modi has met with Zelensky on a number of occasions, most recently in June in Italy on the sidelines of the G7 summit. India has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine. It has also participated in all the international conferences, on the Ukraine crisis, most recently in Switzerland. This was not because Delhi supported Kyiv's position per se, but because it is genuinely interested in exploring the different pathways to end the conflict.
Why India is a potential peacemaker
This is why, perhaps, along with its strong criticism of Modi's Moscow visit, the US conceded that Modi's strong equation with Putin gave India leverage to act as peacemaker. Last month, Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yeralsomak also said that Modi could play a “significant role” in achieving peace in Ukraine.
This certainly gives India an edge over others like China, which has floated its own peace formula on Ukraine but has found no takers in the West. Interestingly, even some Russian commentators do not find anything achievable in it.
Modi’s visit builds on prior efforts
"India is willing to provide all possible support and contribution required to help find peaceful solutions to this complex issue and ...... it is not for us to anticipate or prejudge what the outcome of these discussions will be......," the Ministry of External Affairs has said, while ruling out any mediation in the conflict.
Ahead of his trip to Poland and Kyiv, Modi announced on X that he will “share perspectives on the peaceful resolution of the ongoing Ukraine conflict... As a friend and partner, we hope for an early return of peace and stability in the region."
Indeed, quietly, away from the media glare, India has played a constructive role in the conflict already. It had mediated the Black Sea grains deal as also the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant safety deal between the two sides, as was later made known by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. The US has also acknowledged that it was because of countries like India and China that a possible nuclear catastrophe was averted. In this context, Modi's Kyiv visit is just a matter of course. And there could have been no other timing than soon after visiting Moscow.
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Russia has responded to the visit with understanding. Russian analysts have noted that in their long years of partnership India has never let down Russia in the international arena, even hinting that India may produce a draft initiative of its own at the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan in October. That remains to be seen.
Ukrainian analyst and commentator Andrei Buzarov opines that Modi's visit is highly valued by Ukraine and India has an important role to play for the Ukrainian economy.
Honest broker credentials
Currently, the two sides to the conflict have very absolutist positions. Russia claims not just Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, but also all of Donestk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine while Ukraine wants a total Russian withdrawal from them.
By acting as a messenger, a role that requires an impartial but resolute desire for peace, India can play a substantial role. Modi's visit, in itself, is a strong message of India's intentions.
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