Last month, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) received a jolt when it lost three assembly constituencies and one Lok Sabha seat to the Congress in the by-elections in Himachal Pradesh, a state ruled by the saffron party.
In particular was the loss of the Mandi Lok Sabha seat, which the BJP had won by over 400,000 votes in the 2019 general elections.
The poor show was primarily attributed to the rise in prices of fuel and essential commodities, though it could be also a reflection of the anti-incumbency against the Jairam Thakur government. Another factor could be that every assembly election Himachal Pradesh alternates in voting the BJP and the Congress to power.
However, popular mood could be against the BJP, and the price rise coupled with the farmers' agitation might now hit the party hard in the upcoming assembly elections in five states, especially in politically-important Uttar Pradesh.
This could have prompted BJP strategists to go for a course correction, and the central government immediately announced a cut in petrol and diesel prices.
The move might have helped to some extent, but the year-long protests by farmers along Delhi’s borders and in Punjab, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh had troubled the BJP given that some of its leaders could not even dare to go to their respective constituencies in these regions.
It was left to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resolve the crisis, and on November 19 he announced the repeal of the three farm laws. Starting from December 10, as the farmers headed home from Delhi’s borders, the BJP heaved a sigh of relief.
But this wasn't enough. The party had to counter the criticism over its alleged mishandling and mismanagement of the COVID-19 second wave that resulted in deaths and destruction across India.
Uttar Pradesh, also ruled by the BJP, and a state it wants to retain at any cost to go to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with a clear advantage, was among the worst-hit states. Bodies floating in the river Ganga had visibly put the party, and its Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on a mat.
Besides, the claims of development and the double engine government are not finding too many takers on the ground.
Also, the BJP’s woes had been added by the perceived 'Thakurvad' in the state.
Adityanath, a Thakur, is the first upper caste Chief Minister of UP in nearly 20 years, and it is alleged that he had given undue prominence to people from his caste in administration, and police.
This has caused resentment among other castes, and the chances of these antagonised non-Thakur communities rallying against the ruling party are high.
Just when the BJP was desperately looking for ways to consolidate the Hindus on its side, and negate the impact of the rising public anger against it ahead of the elections, help came in from unexpected quarters.
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav's reference to Muhammad Ali Jinnah as among those who helped India get Independence saw the entry of the founder of Pakistan into the political discourse and electoral battlefield in UP. It saw the beginning of the attempts to polarise the elections.
Prior to 2014, the Hindus were not a single vote bank, not even after the demolition of the Babri masjid in 1992 given that the BJP subsequently lost many elections.
That changed, and the BJP successfully channelised Hindu votes by aggressively pursuing an agenda with a core focus on religion, which at times turns into aggressive Hindutva.
The temple run by Union ministers and BJP leaders is part of this well-crafted strategy. So was Modi’s televised launch of the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor project in his Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi on December 13 where he also took a dip in the Ganga, and offered prayers at the Kaal Bhairav temple.
Modi’s remarks at Varanasi that “whenever an Aurangzeb has arisen in India, a Shivaji has also emerged as the soil of this country”, and the assertions about his government's efforts to develop Hindu pilgrimage centres are cleverly packaged to cater towards the above mentioned consolidation.
The success of this strategy has forced some opposition parties, including the Congress, to play on the BJP's turf, which many claim is a trap.
This explains Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's remarks on December 12 in a rally in Jaipur, Rajasthan, held to protest price rise, when he said, “I am a Hindu, but not a Hindutvawadi. Mahatma Gandhi was a Hindu and (Nathuram) Godse was a Hindutvawadi".
Similarly, Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal and his West Bengal counterpart and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee have played this card, and successfully too.
The opposition parties may argue that the BJP is not the sole saviour of the Hindus or the sole proprietor of Hinduism, but to bowl out the saffron party on its favourite pitch seems to be a big ask, for now.
Aurangzeb Naqshbandi is a senior journalist who has been covering the Congress for 15 years, and is currently associated with Pixstory.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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