Mere weeks ago, when this author travelled in the Jat heartland of Haryana (Jhajjar to Sirsa), it seemed as if the Congress party was poised for a two-thirds majority in the upcoming assembly elections. The BJP's underwhelming performance in the recent parliamentary polls, a litany of unresolved local grievances, the diminished image of the BJP chief ministers, and the resurgence of the Hooda dynasty all seemed to coalesce, propelling the Congress towards an anticipated landslide.
But, as they say, a week is a long time in politics. As the state goes to polls in a couple of weeks, the Congress' self-goals, the alliances stitched by the local parties, INLD and JJP, and some deft moves by the BJP, have made the contest much more interesting.
‘Naukri’ and ‘chokri’ syndorme
A bunch of youngsters in Kaithal summarized the main issues in Haryana quite succinctly as "naukri and chokri", (jobs and brides). In spite of the booming manufacturing industry in southern Haryana comprising Faridabad, Gurgaon, Palwal, Rewari and the all-round development along the GT Road in Sonipat and Panipat districts, the Jat youth seem unable to take advantage of the industrial uptick.
This joblessness has compounded an already skewed gender ratio in the heavily patriarchal society, leading to the phenomenon of "imported brides" from Bihar and Jharkhand – a social experiment fraught with its own set of challenges.
The youngsters have externalized these deficiencies and have placed the blame largely on the governments, both at the state and at the centre. The Agniveer issue, farmers' protest and the hullabaloo with the wrestlers, all seem to have pricked Jat pride.
Jats, the kingmakers
The political chessboard of Haryana is a labyrinth of caste dynamics, with OBCs (35 percent), Jats (25 percent), and Dalits (20 percent) forming the major pieces. The Jats, wielding influence in 35 of the 90 assembly seats, have long been the kingmakers of Haryana's political landscape.
When there is a politically powerful community, there is usually a counter-polarization of other communities. The non-Jat OBCs such as the Sainis, Ahirs, Gurjars, and the Dalits have attached themselves with political parties that back their aspirations. The non-Jat OBCs that mostly clump around in southern and eastern Haryana are the BJP's core voters.
On the other side, the Congress, which has modelled itself to be the party of Jats, is now led by the formidable Bhupinder Hooda, the 76 year old former chief minister, who is eyeing one last shot at power.
Lals of Haryana
The political history of Haryana’s three Lals - Bhajan Lal, Bansi Lal and Devi Lal- is fascinating. There are 15 candidates from these Lal families in the fray in the upcoming elections, pointing to the sway that these families have over the polity of the state. Many family members have meandered away from their homestead, namely, the INLD and JJP. The kins of all the three Lals find place in the BJP.
When political mobilisation mitigates caste friction
In this intricate game of political calculus, both the Congress and BJP are employing remarkably similar strategies of social engineering. The Congress banks heavily on Jat support, while assiduously wooing the non-Jat OBCs, while the BJP executes the inverse strategy. It's a delicate balancing act, reminiscent of Akhilesh Yadav's successful gambit in the recent Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh.
The Congress has given tickets to 28 Jats, and BJP to 16. As far as OBCs are concerned, the numbers for Congress and BJP are at 20 and 22 respectively. The 10 percent of Muslims and Sikhs in the electorate are mostly expected to back the Congress.
These social engineering methods adopted in Haryana for once seem to have promoted cohesion rather than division. The enmeshing of support bases have smoothened the sharp caste divisions. Though the line between "jatwad" and social justice may appear thin, perhaps in open democratic systems these sort of compromises are inevitable.
The art of messing up
As if it has not learned anything from the recent debacles, especially in Maharashtra, the BJP has still has given tickets to outsiders and dynasts much to the consternation of party workers.
The Congress, not to be outdone in the art of self-sabotage, has managed to alienate the formidable Dalit leader in Kumari Selja, the MP from Sirsa. The comments passed on the Dalit communities by the Congress leaders have caused much heartburn. There are 17 seats reserved for the SC communities in the state.
The Hoodas, sensing that Selja might be a contender for the CM’s post, have downsized her by not giving tickets to her supporters in connivance with the state in-charge Deepak Babaria. It also cut off its alliance with the Aam Admi Party.
Shrewd analysts opine that the Hoodas would rather prefer a marginal win over a thumping win, worrying that the latter will give the party high-command a stronger say in picking the CM post polls. In short, the Hoodas are hoping to beat the BJP and the Congress high command. This sort of a situation is not unusual in the Congress. Ask Ashok Gehlot!
The BJP on the other hand upped its game by conducting a huge OBC sammelan in which Home Minister Amit Shah had promised to increase the creamy layer limit to Rs.8 lakh from the current Rs.6 lakh. In its manifesto, the party has promised Development Boards for 36 biradaris (dominant caste groups). The party has dropped 15 of its 41 MLAs to fight the two-time anti-incumbency.
Both major parties have promised doles for women, which now seems to be a common feature in all states. In its manifesto, the Congress has promised legal guarantee for MSP for crops, caste survey and 2 lakh government jobs, among other things.
The regional parties JJP and INLD seem to be losing out due to the Jat consolidation towards the Congress. The INLD and the JJP have tied-up with Dalit parties, the BSP and Chandrashekar Azad's Azad Samaj Party respectively. By the quirks of politics, the two regional Jat parties might score more Dalit votes than Jat votes this time around.
The people of Haryana take pride in their zid (stubbornness). Under the pump from many sides, the youth of the state are perhaps going to call the shots this time. The "national" and "personal" interests will have a clash at the hustings.
Once up on a time, it in the land of Haryana, the mother of all battles was fought at Kurukshetra. It is in this land of warriors and wrestlers, of ancient epics and modern ambitions, the stage is set for a gripping electoral battle.
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