So Imran Khan is no longer Pakistan’s Prime Minister, keeping intact the country’s tradition of not allowing any elected Prime Minister to complete a full term in office. After the Opposition united to oust him in a vote of no-confidence, former Punjab Chief Shehbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) has become Pakistan’s 23rd Prime Minister. His next arduous task will be to announce a Cabinet and form a government.
Shehbaz Sharif, the brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, has served thrice as Chief Minister of Pakistan's second largest, most populous, and most influential Punjab province, where he successfully implemented a number of infrastructure projects, including Chinese-funded ones, earning the sobriety of ‘Punjab Speed’.
Toppling a government may be easier than running the country. Shehbaz Sharif, like Khan, has become Prime Minister without any previous experience of running the country. He has his tasks cut out for him.
The foremost challenge is to keep the coalition intact. Some analysts are of the view that the coalition that ousted Khan was a marriage of convenience between parties with little in common, united only in their opposition to Khan. While the PML(N) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP) remain the two largest national parties, and bitter rivals, others, cutting across religious and political ideology, like the ultra-religious Muttahida Majlis–e–Amal (MMA), the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), and a handful of other parties. Sharif will have to ensure that the coalition remains intact till next elections due in August 2023.
Linked to this is the challenge of expelling the rumours of an alleged ‘American hand’ in Khan’s ouster. While US influence inside Pakistan cannot be denied, there is not much credence in these allegations of Khan. However, given the powerful anti-US sentiments among ordinary Pakistanis, it has the power to create mischief. At the same time Khan, who continues to remain immensely popular, has also mounted formidable rallies in his support both across the country as well as among the Pakistani diaspora in other countries. The new government will have to grapple with this.
The next crucial task for the new government will be to get the economy back on track. Khan can hardly be blamed for all of Pakistan’s economic woes. Corruption, especially by the two main national parties which had been in power preceding Khan's advent, has been all pervading. Unfortunately, Khan did nothing to arrest the downslide; instead, he added to the mess, taking inflation to 13 percent, affecting majorly the people at the grassroots, leading to high unemployment, and agricultural and economic downturn.
He depended heavily on borrowing, from China, from the Arab world, and from international institutions. Yet, strangely his policies more recently to bring down inflation actually led to the IMF withholding funds. Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities has risen to around 52 trillion Pakistani rupees. Inflated government spending, nepotism, and corruption have led to slowing down of projects even under the CPEC, much to the consternation of Pakistan’s iron friend China.
It is doubtful how much rot the new government can stem but Shehbaz Sharif's reputation as ‘Punjab Speed’ will stand him in good stead both among the people as well as with the Chinese, which has already announced that a change of government in Pakistan would not affect bilateral ties. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said that "I would like to emphasize that no matter how the political situation changes in Pakistan, China will unswervingly adhere to its friendly policy toward Pakistan."
In his inaugural speech on April 11, Shehbaz Sharif addressed this issue and announced a few measures: minimum wage to be increased to Rs 25,000; 10 percent increase in pensions; wheat flour to be made available at a reduced price under a Ramadan package; high electricity prices to be reduced; and measures to be taken to make Pakistan a "paradise for investments".
Finally, challenges on the foreign policy front have to be addressed. Khan oversaw ties deteriorating with the US, West Asia, and with India. Shehbaz Sharif has announced that he would seek to repair the trust deficit with the US, and would pursue stronger ties with Pakistan’s gulf allies, while balancing ties with Iran.
On India however, Kashmir is still the stumbling block. While bilateral ties are certain to improve hereon (mainly also because Khan has left it at a nadir), it would be a mistake to pin high hopes on the new government in Islamabad. India will have to wait and watch, and even look at options to improve trade ties.
Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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