Muslim and Scheduled Tribe (ST) constituencies witnessed the sharpest rise in voter participation in Bihar’s 2025 Assembly elections, with turnout in these areas climbing by more than 10 percentage points compared to 2020, according to a Moneycontrol analysis of Election Commission of India (ECI) data available till 7:00 PM on polling day.
The 32 Muslim-majority constituencies, concentrated across Seemanchal and Koshi, recorded an average turnout of 71.9 percent, up sharply from 60.2 percent in 2020—an 11.7 percentage point jump. The two ST-reserved seats saw an even steeper rise, with turnout increasing 13 percentage points to 75.2 percent.
The spike in participation across these belts outpaced all other constituency groups, pushing Muslim and ST districts to the top of the turnout table this election cycle.
Women and flood-prone areas also see higher turnout
The surge extended beyond community-based segments. Constituencies with a higher share of women voters recorded an average turnout of 68.3 percent, up 10.2 percentage points from 58.1 percent in 2020.
Male-dominated seats—where the male voter share far exceeds the state average—also saw stronger participation, rising 9.5 points to 65.4 percent.
Scheduled Caste (SC) constituencies registered a similar improvement, with turnout increasing 9.5 points to 67.2 percent, while flood-affected belts posted a 9.1 percentage point rise, reaching 65.1 percent from 56 percent in 2020.
A rise in participation
Compared with the 2015 elections, the increase in Muslim-majority districts appears even more pronounced. Average turnout in these constituencies is up 10.4 percentage points (71.9 percent versus 61.5 percent in 2015), suggesting a structural rise in participation rather than a one-off spike.
Similarly, women-dominant constituencies continue to outperform the state average, reinforcing the trend of female-led voter mobilisation that has reshaped Bihar’s electoral landscape over the past decade.
Implications for close contests
Higher turnout in Muslim and women-weighted seats typically corresponds with narrower margins in close races. This dynamic could make several contests more competitive, particularly in 78 constituencies that were decided by small margins in 2020.
Meanwhile, the News18 Mega Exit Poll, released on November 11, projects the NDA alliance to win between 140–150 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan—led by the RJD and JD(U)—is expected to secure 85–95 seats.
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