India’s defence ties with the US would remain robust and grow stronger in the coming years, as shared interests, particularly related to China, guide partnership, experts said as former president Donald Trump became president-elect with a thumping majority.
“Both countries recognise the importance of this partnership in maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region,” said Divakaran Padma Kumar Pillay, Research Fellow, Manohar Parikkar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
Pillay, however, noted that trade issues and India’s non-aligned stance could also create friction in defence ties.
Trump and Biden have been equally good to India in terms of arms deals, with the country securing $15 billion worth of notifications over the last eight years.
A Moneycontrol analysis found that both the Biden and Trump administrations contributed equally to arms exports to India.
“During the last term of Trump's, India and US had seen defence relationship go up several notches. This term will also see a strengthening of the relationship. India-US relationship is bipartisan in the sense it is beyond political party lines, and there are fundamental factors that drive the relationship… this term will also see a strengthening of our relationship going forward,” former defence secretary Ajay Kumar told Moneycontrol.
During the Trump years, the US issued a notification for the sale of 24 MH-60R Seahawk helicopters worth $2.6 billion to India in April 2019. In February 2020, the US approved the sale of the Integrated Air Defense Weapon System (IADWS) for an estimated cost of $1.9 billion.
India's share of global arms imports increased to 9.8 percent between 2019 and 2023.
There has also been a pivot in alliances with France and the United States, but Russia still accounts for the largest share of imports.
US share in India’s imports increased to 13 percent in 2023 from 8 percent two decades ago.
Two of India’s four defence agreements, the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), were signed during the Trump years.
Trump also elevated India to Strategic Trade Authorization (STA-1) status, allowing access to sensitive technologies previously reserved for NATO allies.
Experts indicate that some additional benefits may also come to India.
“The wars will end, the Khalistan movement will get a nice hard brake, Islamist terror will be stifled. Ukraine conflict will no longer get the support," Pillay added.
Jayant Dasgupta, former ambassador to the WTO, cautions that while defence ties have been robust, “it cannot be a one-way street. Defence exports should be both ways.”
The US accounted for nearly 50 percent of India’s $2-2.5 billion of defence exports in FY24.
“India is supplying components for defence production, while we are importing helicopters and drones. If it’s one-way traffic, it doesn’t help us,” Dasgupta added.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
