Congress is set to sweep the assembly election in Haryana and deny BJP a hat-trick with a poll of exit polls predicting 54 seats for the grand old party in the 90-member assembly. In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress-National Conference alliance is expected to emerge as the single largest outfit but will fall short of the majority mark, multiple exit polls have predicted.
The predictions, if they hold true, will come as a big boost for Congress — and the INDIA bloc by extension — after a strong show by the alliance in the recent Lok Sabha elections. Conversely, the forecast spells worry for BJP which was looking to regain its momentum following a subpar performance in the general election.
Decoding the exit poll predictions:
Pollsters have predicted that Congress will comfortably wrest power from BJP in Haryana and form the government after staying in the opposition for nearly a decade.
A poll of six exit polls has projected 54 seats for Congress in the 90-member assembly. The BJP is expected to win 27 seats while other parties, including INLD, may bag 9, the exit polls have predicted.
Among the exit polls, Dhruv Research has predicted the maximum number of seats for Congress at 50-64. The lowest range for Congress is at 44-54 (Dainik Bhaskar). However, most exit polls have unanimously predicted that Congress will cross the majority mark. None of them gave majority to BJP.
The Nayab Singh Saini government has been grappling with 10 years of anti-incumbency and was weighed down by factors like Jat anger, farmer distress and unemployment. While both the state and central government took several steps in the run up to the assembly polls to address these issues, the exit polls show they failed to quell the anti-BJP sentiment in the state.
In the 2019 Haryana assembly elections, BJP was the single largest party with 40 seats while Congress won 31 seats. The saffron party had to form a post-poll alliance with JJP to retain power in the state.
Jammu and Kashmir exit polls 2024
Jammu and Kashmir is likely headed for a hung assembly — just like 2014 — but the National Conference-Congress alliance has a definitive edge in the Union Territory, exit polls have predicted.
A poll of five exit polls has predicted 41 seats for the NC-Congress alliance in the 90-member assembly and 27 seats for the BJP.
PDP is expected to win 7 seats while Independents and smaller parties could bag 15, exit polls said.
Among the exit polls, Peoples Pulse is the only one that predicted a majority for NC-Congress. It has forecast 46-50 seats for the alliance in J&K. Notably, Axis My India has predicted up to 23 seats (upper range) for Independents/smaller parties.
Gulistan has predicted a close fight between NC-Congress (31-36 seats) and BJP (28-30 seats).
If the predictions hold true, then the NC-Congress alliance, which ruled J&K from 2008 to 2014, will need the support of Independents to return to power in the erstwhile state.
The exit poll predictions spell bad news for former allies BJP and PDP. BJP was hoping to see a bump in its seat share in the first elections in the Valley since the abrogation of Article 370. Another factor that was in BJP's favour was the bump in Jammu's representation in the assembly following delimitation. The Jammu region's seat share went up from 37 to 43. However, exit polls have predicted no major change in BJP's seat tally.
The exit poll forecast is also a big setback for Mehbooba Mufti's PDP, which is trying hard to arrest its downslide in J&K.
In 2014, no party won a clear majority. PDP was the single largest party with 28 seats, followed by BJP which won 25 seats. Both the parties formed a post-poll alliance to come to power. The alliance collapsed in 2018 when BJP pulled its support.
The results of Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir elections will be declared on October 8.
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