After voting for the two-phase Bihar Assembly election ends at 6 pm on November 11, all eyes will be on the exit polls. The counting of votes will be held on November 14.
The 2020 assembly polls in the state were held in three phases under the shadow of the Covid-19 pandemic. The contest is expected to be triangular, with the NDA, the INDIA bloc, and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party all vying for power.
How do the numbers stack up?
In the 243-member Assembly, the NDA currently holds 131 seats—BJP 80, JD(U) 45, HAM(S) 4, and there is support from two Independents. Meanwhile, the Opposition INDIA bloc controls 111, led by RJD (77), followed by Congress (19), CPI(ML) (11), and CPI(M) and CPI with two each.
The run-up to the elections saw opposition parties alleging several irregularities in the final voters’ list in Bihar, with the Congress claiming that the number of voter names deleted exceeds the victory margin of the last assembly election in some constituencies. The party has also been accusing the Election Commission of conducting the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) with an aim of deleting votes of its supporters. It had even approached the Supreme Court, along with other parties to stop the exercise.
What is an exit poll?
Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voters leave polling stations. It aims to gauge electoral trends before official results are announced. They provide a snapshot of voter behavior, analysing factors such as demographics, economic concerns, and political preferences. However, while exit polls can offer early insights, their accuracy can vary based on sample size, methodology, and voter responses.
Is an exit poll always accurate?
Estimating vote shares and predicting seat outcomes are the key challenges while conducting exit polls.
In 2020, most agencies had predicted a neck-and-neck fight between the Mahagathbandhan and NDA. However, at the end of the day, the Nitish Kumar-led NDA has proved the poll pundits wrong, though by a close margin. Most predicted a clear win for the Tejashwi Yadav led Mahagatbandhan, but the alliance eventually lost out in a close contest
The BJP had won 75 seats out of 110 that it had contested. Its strength rose over the years on account of defections from other parties as also victories in bypolls.
The NDA had secured a majority with 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan had won 110. The RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats.
When and where to watch exit polls?
You can track the latest exit poll predictions and analysis on Moneycontrol.com, along with the most comprehensive Bihar assembly election coverage. Additionally, exit polls will be broadcast live on CNN-News18.
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