Nifty may make big move in next 1 month: Sukhani

It has a been a choppy week for the market, if this choppiness continues for few more sessions then no traders will be left in the market, cautions Sudarshan Sukhani of S2analytics.com.

The Nifty has managed to stay above 5,300 levels and if there is no major bad news then it may continue to remain above that mark, he told CNBC-TV18. "The trade for today is on the long side. Going ahead, we will see a big move on the Nifty in the next one month," he added.   Below is the edited transcript of the interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: First a trading strategy on the index after what has been a very choppy week for us? A: Yes it’s been a choppy week and if this continues for a few more days there will be almost no traders left in the market. I hope that doesn’t happen. The trend is still up, although it’s now silly to say so because there is no trend infact but for whatever it is worth the short term trend is up. We did breakout out of that trading range of 5200-5300 and we are floating above 5300. Maybe today also if things don’t go bad we’ll still remain above 5300. So the trade is to remain long. The Nifty is in a very narrow range, it can not stay here. That’s the only certainty that this market has today, it is going to move out. I don’t know whether it will move out. First we had 5300, now we have 5350 as the barrier. I don’t know if it will go above or come back all the way and breakdown below 5200. The trade currently is on the long side but I am very open. If the market decides to move down that’s what we’ll have to do but we’ll get a big move in the next one month, one just needs to be patient. Q: You think Crompton Greaves is a weak looking chart? A: It has become a weak looking chart. Crompton had all the right things going for it and I thought maybe this is now entering a new bull market of its own after that big decline, so a lot of the excesses were washed away. Now it seems its not sustaining, lot of stocks are not sustaining. The Nifty itself is confusing but Crompton Greaves is a short sell. If not anything it will probably come down lower where it becomes a buy. Or if it is entering again a bull market, if the rally was just a relief rally then it will see lower levels  . In either case downside values will be seen, so it is a short sell here. Q: Fortis is a better looking chart you think? A: Now it is a better looking chart, earlier Fortis was a weak looking chart. It went through a correction, made lower highs, lower lows. Now it has broken out of a fairly bullish head and shoulder pattern that tells us that the decline is over and this is a reversal pattern, and it’s now embarking on a new up move. It has also done all the right things on the upside. Yesterday it gained a lot of traction and that traction was not a one day move, it has come on the back of a breakout from a bullish pattern. So Fortis is not just a day trade, it’s a good idea to go long today. It’s also probably something that you want to hold on to. Q: Godrej Industries has been trending quite nicely, that one you think has more strength on its charts? A: It does have more strenght on the charts. Firstly it’s making those new highs. Now for the last 3 days, it’s in a very narrow range, consolidating. Stocks can't consolidate for long while the index can do that for much longer. This consolidation is going to end and because of the strong uptrend that we are seeing in Godrej, it’s reasonable to assume that it will break out on the upside and continue it’s up move. It’s an excellent stock to be in; it’s a buy on dips stock. I have explained earlier it’s in the same position as Hindustan Unilever was when it was trading at Rs 300. Q: Petronet is a sell for you today? A: Yes, I had thought that after that big decline on IGL Petronet also fell and maybe there will be a buy on dips opportunity but that has not happened. Petronet has now actually weakened, it has come back to the levels at which it closed on the IGL news day, so there has been no rally essentially. If there is no rally, if the market is responding to bad news, if support levels are willing to be broken then we should be short. At the worst, we will have a correction because that Rs 155 level is now being taken out on the downside, so that correction should be tradeable. _PAGEBREAK_ Q: There is possibly some news for which Escorts is bouncing around the last couple of days but even technically it looks strong? A: Yes, technically it was already giving a buy signal and yesterday it confirmed that with strong momentum on the upside. I have equity positions is Escorts. But again that reversal pattern is a bullish head and shoulder pattern. Stocks that move up with a reversal pattern, tell us that it’s not a 1-2 day move and it’s not momentum driven, there is something bigger going on here. I think there should be follow through on the rally that we saw yesterday. Apart from that it’s worthwhile holding on to it. Q: India Cements is a stock you are not very bullish on? A: No, I wasn’t earlier also. India Cement is a very weak looking chart. The rally in India Cement is probably over. It went through a large trading range that apparently is a distribution pattern and I would expect it to go much lower. This market is not giving any trades but assuming that somebody wants to look at a relatively safe trade; one can go long in Ambuja and go short in India Cement. Q: Would you be looking to add longs if we do find the Nifty drifting towards or closer to 5300 this morning? A: No, that is not a good location to add long. I would be looking to add long if the Nifty goes back to 5330-5340. It has to show some more strength otherwise this adding long positions then cutting some of them in the evening is of no use. The rupee is now probably looking at 52.20 it’s looking for a correction on the upside assuming towards 51 or even 50.50 before it resumes its decline towards 54. Q: Some of the stocks which had a tough day yesterday BHEL technically? A: Technically we all know that BHEL has nothing, but it is still a buying opportunity because it’s come to Rs 250, which has been its support level not once but multiple times. It’s not necessary that a stock will simply drop off. So for the day trader or short-term trader, the opportunity lies on the long side for a couple of days. When you think this support is likely to hold, so let me put a stop loss and see if I can buy it if it shows any signs of strength. There is no short selling here. Q: Another loser from yesterday, Balrampur Chini? A: That remains a sell; it has seen a very decent rally, now it appears that it’s turning around. The chances are that lower levels are coming. So it’s probably a correction in an on going uptrend but it could be a deep correction. So there is a tradable opportunity on the downside. We would expect even Rs 50 in Balrampur Chini over the next few days. Q: What about Maruti, how are you going to trade it now after yesterdays up move? A: You buy it on a dip. Assuming the markets open soft and Maruti dips, and then holds on to some kind of levels, any intraday levels that becomes a buying opportunity. You are buying at hopefully 15-25 points lower. The target for the current thrust would be Rs 1450. So Maruti is making all the right noises, right patterns on the charts. One should go long in it. Q: Your view on IRB Infra from infrastructure? A:  I would say you go long because IRB has been a consistent out performer. All infrastructure stocks are choppy; they go up, they suddenly come down, they make these big ranges, narrow ranges, it is not a clean chart. But within that sort of disturbed chart, IRB has a very clear uptrend. It  has slowly and steadily reached Rs 200. IRB is likely to cross Rs 200. So yesterday, we had a down day. This down day is a good opportunity to go long in the stock. In any case it’s not a short selling idea; you have to go long on dips. Q: Did you have a look at the charts of Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam (SJVN)? A: Yes I did. I could not understand what it did yesterday. It went up to some large numbers then closed at the lows of the day. While there is a small gain between day before and yesterday, it’s not worth looking at. It is not a buying opportunity at all and there is nothing to sell here. So it’s best forgotten and that absurd move ignored. Disclosure: I have personal holding in Escorts