Reduce Dabur India; target of Rs 450: Emkay Global Financial

Emkay Global Financial's research report on Dabur India

The management, in consultation with McKinsey, has refreshed the company’s vision, with focus now on seven structural initiatives. On the back of these initiatives, the management aspires to achieve double-digit revenue CAGR over FY25-28E. We await execution progress before baking management aspirations into our numbers, and maintain ~8% revenue CAGR and ~10% earnings CAGR over FY25-28E. Q4 results were in line with the business update. India revenue declined 4.6%, with 4% volume decline. As the company sustains share gains in 90% of the portfolio, we expect the management to revisit the fundamentals of its category presence and align these with execution.

Outlook

We retain REDUCE on Dabur India and keep our Mar-26E TP unchanged at Rs 450, on 37x P/E, as we see weak business execution.