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Here are some investing picks from Prakash Diwan

In an interview to CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh, Sonia Shenoy and Anuj Singhal, Prakash Diwan of Altamount Capital Management shared his reading and outlook on the fundamentals of the market and also gave recommendations on various stocks.

January 24, 2017 / 12:18 IST
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In an interview to CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh, Sonia Shenoy and Anuj Singhal, Prakash Diwan of Altamount Capital Management shared his reading and outlook on the fundamentals of the market and also gave recommendations on various stocks.Below is the verbatim transcript of Prakash Diwan's interview to Anuj Singhal, Latha Venkatesh & Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18.Sonia: What are your thoughts on the stock of the hour HCL Technologies, good numbers coming in this time around but your thoughts on how to approach this stock?A: If you see the movement of the stock in the last hour in yesterday’s session very clearly the expectation was kind of drawing to a consensus of favourable beat. In these times, if company comes up with numbers, which are in-line and specially if the guidance is maintained and not reduced, it definitely sounds pleasant. But on the stock going forward the challenge is going to be how much of the US business is the one that these guys can move or maintain or grow on without any upsets on the on-shoring parts. So, my sense is it is a cue that people will take from the Trump announcements particularly, related to IT. But this whole thing of IT and pharma getting into a corner of sorts is a little bit of an overreaction because Donald Trump is known to be a very tough negotiator. This is a posturing that always helps when you want to do some kind of negotiation from a position of strength. So, I think the IT guys don’t need to worry and HCL Tech could probably be the first one that will take off if things normalise.Latha: Of the midcap number what stood out for you?A: One company that has reported very positive numbers and that is Trent and this also is a tell-tale illustration of what is happening post demonetisation. You have a Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which is a manufacturer of FMCG which is struggling with volume growth and very interestingly the commentary said that they have seen more frequent trips to the stores, smaller tickets and the pattern of purchasing the basket is changing towards variety of newer items. This is what is going to help retailers who are filling this gap of the cashless purchasing pattern, which you had from the kirana stores.So, if a company capitalises on that well, I think this space is going to expand much faster than what we always have seen and there has always been too much of anticipation but that didn’t happen till now and why am I referring to Trent is Star Bazaar is one of their key growth engines and that has taken off. So, I am very impressed with the numbers. You could see that rub-off effect on enough a Future Consumer, which has also got a trigger in the form of their food park at Tumkur that could see some benefits because it is a joint venture with the government. They have just tied up with another giant of sorts in the retailing business. So, this is the space that is going to be extremely promising -- Budget or no Budget.Sonia: Couple of these companies whether it is GSFC, whether it is Amara Raja Batteries, Divis Laboratories they have been falling quite a bit because of the weak numbers or other issues. Anything that you would buy into?A: For example GSFC, let us take this. This is absolutely hot from the oven. Thanks to the issues that it has had with some of the investee companies. It has a fairly significant portfolio of other companies -- Gujarat based companies. So, look at GNFC for instances, now that has done well thanks to the turbocharged direct injection (TDI) bump-up. The arbitrage between benzene and caprolcatum that GSFC has been enjoying is probably shrunk a bit because the input cost going up but that could expand again. So, these numbers are a bit lumpy, but I won’t write it off just because of a bad quarter. So to answer your questions specifically, if I were to buy something on the basis of some weakness in the numbers GSFC is probably one of them.Sonia: I know you track Chennai Petroleum closely, good numbers and would you be positive on the stock?A: There is no reason for people who have bought into this stock and have seen the up move so strongly because the balance sheet repair that they undertook about a year and a half back is finally showing its impact. This is the Ashok Leyland of the oil and gas sector. In the last two years we have seen this being the most dramatic turnaround, continue to hold. I would believe it will probably clock a couple of decent more quarters before the consolidation begins.Latha: Do you want to add anything more on Asian Paints? Is this dip to be used to buy at all?A: Asian Paints is a stock that you wait for the comeback by the FIIs. Whenever that happens all this correction will get bought into. You really cannot time in that way but I would believe demonetisation impact that has been reflected in the numbers is still not as bad as what we thought. What they are trying to explain from the commentary is very clear that they also had some exports, which should a dip, which has impacted, but domestic numbers don’t seem as ugly as we thought in the premium segment.But my only concern with buying into any of these stocks rather today or these days is specially, anecdotally, if you see whenever we have had the most concentrated days of results of earnings markets tend to be either sideways or weak. Because something or the other will give in and the reaction will cascade to the others. It is not a great day to necessarily go ahead and buy in the morning. You will probably do it much later in the day.

first published: Jan 24, 2017 10:05 am

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