In an interview to CNBC-TV18, SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com shared his readings and outlook on specific stocks and sectors.
Below is the verbatim transcript of SP Tulsian's interview to Latha Venkatesh, Sonia Shenoy & Anuj Singhal.
Latha: Your comments on the numbers of Coal India and the stock price?
A: Horrible numbers, in fact I am keeping negative view because as such this stock was not seen performing very well and the numbers were definitely looking dull because of monsoon season etc, you see lower off take, but this kind of pathetic performance was not expected from Coal India, so definitely negative view on the stock.Anuj: You have been positive on non banking financial companies (NBFCs). Do you think Bajaj Finance corrected enough and is it a time to buy it?
A: It has corrected enough and mainly the NBFCs which have seen huge long positions having build in the Futures and Options (F&O) and Bajaj Finance is largely the victim of that, in fact I heard the management but the commentary was so confusing or it was interpreted in a confusion way where they have been presenting negative view on the industry but have been saying that their company is not affected so much, one. Second, I am unable to understand their stand or the view they have expressed on loan against property, they have been taking for last couple of years as a negative view which has send wrong signal because loan against property amounts to having given to the developers and not to the home buyers. So that has probably sent the wrong picture.
I think that management has not explicitly have clarified the stand and that was misunderstood. However, if you see the commentary, they have said that their company is least affected as compared to the industry going forward but coming on the stock the major long positions which has been seen held by the weak hands, got liquidated, stock seen to have bottomed out. You cannot take a view of one week, two weeks or the Q3 number because Q3 numbers have already seen largely factoring into the price. As an investor, if I have a view of about three-four months, I am keeping highly positive view on Bajaj Finance and maybe other NBFCs, if you take a stock specific call, I am not negative on the housing finance companies like Indiabulls Housing Finance, LIC Housing Finance or HDFC, Can Fin Homes, there are many.
However, on to microfinance side, it goes pocket to pocket. If you have heard Bharat Financial Inclusion, they have categorically stated about 97 percent of the business going forward.
Coming on the gold finance companies and having presence in other areas also of the financing like small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and other things are not so much seen having affected. And 60 days cushion of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) guideline for provisioning will also be helping them. So I am not keeping a negative stance on any of these NBFCs baring one or two which can be counted on fingers.Sonia: Very disappointing numbers coming in from Amtek Group, both Amtek Auto and Castex Technologies. How are you going to approach those stocks now because we haven't heard anything about the deal with the sale of Neumayer Tekfor either?
A: We have been discussing this with every quarterly results and I have repeatedly said that there is no point in taking the call on the quarterly numbers, which are going to continue to remain bad. However, when they had the meeting in the last week of November, saying that the investor is getting infused etc, and when you asked me I had said that I cannot rely on this news unless and until we get to know the names of the prospective investors who are coming in the company and that has diluted the stand or have created confusion whether they will be selling Tekfor stake or not, which was expected by the market that that can fetch them about USD 500-600 million and that will give them a big respite because if you go by the track record of the company in the last six-eight months, the way they have gone wrong in all their promises of USD 1 billion reduction in one year, they had said Indian assets getting monetised, which they have invested by the promoter in personal capacity also. However, everything has not got fulfilled, so I do not think that market is expecting to hear anything from the company except monetisation of assets which has got changed in the last week of November where they passed a general resolution in all three or four companies saying that some investor is getting infused. So I do not think that this will give any kind of comfort to the market unless and until something concrete happens on the asset monetisation and results are seen to be bad for all the companies whether Castex Technologies, Metalyst Forgings or maybe Amtek Auto and especially in Amtek Auto, you see the exceptional items which keep bothering the quarterly numbers every now and then.Anuj: One of your favourite stocks Bharat Forge, a remarkable rally. It's now up 25-30 percent in a matter of last couple of months and new 52 week highs. Do you see this stock now going towards its previous highs, lifetime highs as well or is this a time to book profit for those who entered at Rs 700-800?
A: The traders will keep booking profits at every rise of 3-5 percent but 52 week high is not something surprising. I am looking for all time high which in my view at Rs 1,300-1,350 and this is a portfolio kind of stock and about three-four months back when there was bulls and bears at Rs 600 level, an unanimous sell call was given on the stock when I said that this is a portfolio stock which we must have in our portfolio and I continue to have the same positive view. There is no point in taking a call on the monthly sales numbers or the quarterly results because maybe the recent news of North America truck sales seen rising - that is one positive for the stock which should not have justified for the stock to move up so much from a level of Rs 800 to Rs 1,000 in less than couple of months but that shows the strength of the stock and I continue to have positive bias and in fact there were few stocks like Bosch, Motherson Sumi Systems, Bharat Forge on which I have repeatedly given a buy call when they all corrected to abysmally low levels etc.
Sonia: A word on Kaveri Seed Company. The stock has been seeing higher highs and the results were not too bad this time around?
A: I like the results, in fact Q2 numbers are never seen to be exciting and Q1 numbers are always exciting for the company but the kind of losses which we have seen having reduced in Q2 in spite of all the problems and all that. You are right that it may not be exciting, I may not say that this initiates a buy call on the stock but results are seen better than what was expected.
Sonia: What have you made of the drama at the TCS extraordinary general meeting (EGM) yesterday. 78 percent of retail investors by numbers have voted against the unfair removal of Cyrus Mistry and once again that has caused a lot of uncertainty with respect to the group stocks. How do you approach names like Tata Motors, Tata Motors DVR now?
A: I have expressed my views earlier also that can you question the validity or the independence of the decision having taken now also because I read the clippings of the proceedings of the EGM where people asked whether Rata Tata needs a yes-man. However, I am not surprised with the outcome because that was expected and in fact on both the parts whether sometimes I feel that if I would have been Cyrus Mistry, why should I continue on the board of the company. I would have resigned gracefully, one. Second, on the part of Ratan Tata, now they are saying that Cyrus Mistry has misrepresented to become the Chairman of the group etc, these are just like washing dirty linen in the public and exposing the company more.
Nusli Wadia is saying that Tata Motors is holding unrelated stocks and they were all on the board of the company for ages maybe for decades, why these things were not questioned at that point of time. So it's better that least we talk on all these things and see how this drama gets over. Let's wait to see the climax of the drama.Latha: Any views on the numbers that came over the last several hours and days. Omkar Speciality Chemicals is up 2.2 percent, what you made of Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation (GMDC), KSK Energy Ventures. Any of the stocks you want to speak about?
A: None of the results have impressed and don't think KSK Energy or GMDC have impressed and even Omkar Speciality, I have not been too convinced on the stock looking at the price behaviour and pricing pattern and the business model of the company.
Sonia: Your thoughts on The Mandhana Retail Ventures.
A: An isolated view on a company which is getting spun off after about 15 months of having approved by the board, one. Second, I have heard the management saying that retail venture has a debt of about Rs 7 crore but what about the debt of Rs 700-800 crore in the parent company Mandhana Industries, which is going for debt restructuring. The net worth of Rs 600 crore is getting a valuation closer to Rs 100 crore.
In the case of Mandhana Industries, even today we have not known the reasons of the majority of the independent directors resigning including the ex-Sebi chief, auditors resigning, the dividend having called off. Therefore, go by the management track record and just cannot get excited that The Mandhana Retail Ventures is getting listed.
All are talking about 'Being Human' but this brand is not owned by The Mandhana Retail Ventures. This is owned by Salman Khan Foundation and the licence may get transferred to other manufacturer. So there is a lot of gung-ho. I do not understand the reason for such a wide coverage and so much getting excited in comparing The Mandhana Retail Ventures with stocks like Arvind etc, who are perpetually own brands. So I will be taking a cautious and negative view on The Mandhana Retail Ventures going forward as well.
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