Buy Tata Motors; target of Rs 335: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on Tata Motors

JLR's wholesale volumes declined 8% YoY (+24% MoM) to 53k units (est. of 45k units; includes China JV volumes of 4.8k units) in Sep-18. Jaguar volumes increased 9% YoY to 19k units (est. of 15k), while Land Rover volumes declined 15% YoY to 34k units (est. of 30k). JLR's retail volumes fell 12% YoY (down ~4% in 1HFY19) in the month due to a decline of 46% in China retails and ~7% in US retails. UK (-1%) and EU (-5%) witnessed substantial volumes pressure after the implementation of WLTP norms from Sep-18. Jaguar retail volumes grew 4% YoY, driven by new models like XE & I-Pace; volumes of other models declined substantially. LR volumes declined ~19% YoY, as strong growth in Velar (+26%) was more than diluted by a decline across other models. According to JLR, industry retails declined ~20.5% in the UK and ~31% in Germany. This can primarily be ascribed to the timing of new WLTP homologation rules and reduced diesel demand. Industry retails in the US declined ~5.5%.

Outlook

The stock trades at 9.1/5.3x FY19E/20E consolidated EPS. Maintain Buy with a target price of INR335 (Sep-20 SOTP-based).