The U.S. Federal Reserve’s status quo on Fed funds rate and a conservative ‘dot plot’ hinting at one rate cut in 2024 is still being seen by experts as a positive cue for stock markets. The decision triggered a rally in US stocks overnight, with S&P 500 closing above 5,400 for the first time ever, as traders are said to still betting on two rate cuts in 2024. The US Fed also raised its outlook for 2025 to four rate cuts.
Benchmark Nifty on June 12 moved sideways in a narrow range, facing resistance near the 23,400 zone as it closed above 23,300 level for the first time ever. Bank Nifty too faced resistance near 50,200 level, ending near 49,900, trimming gains. Media, PSU Banks, Energy, Infra and Metals were among the major gainers, while FMCG index was among the key laggards. The market breadth was strong with advance-decline ratio at 5:2 in favour of gaining shares.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas
Outlook: Nifty, after rallying approximately 2,100 points last week, is now witnessing consolidation. It has been stuck in a range of 23,450–23,200 over the last three trading sessions. The cool-off in India Vix to 14.46 levels indicates intraday volatility easing from pre-counting day levels. Nifty attempted to rise higher but encountered profit booking, with the hourly momentum indicator showing a negative crossover, a sell signal. It is still away from the equilibrium line, suggesting the consolidation may continue.
Strategy: Ideally, dips towards the support zone of 23,160–23,100 should be used as buying opportunities. On the upside, the target zone is 23,400–23,450.
Key Support: 23,160 - 23,100 Key Resistance: 23,450 - 23,500
Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities
The Nifty ended flat after a early gains on June 12, facing resistance around 23,400. The short-term trend remains positive as the index stayed above 23,300, with the index looking to consolidate in the near term in the 23,300-23,500 range. A decisive breakout above 23,500 could trigger a rally towards 23,800.
Nifty Support: 23,200-23,000 Nifty Resistance: 23,400-23,500
Bank Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Jatin Gedia, ShareKhan by BNP Paribas
Bank Nifty is facing resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (50,050) and has been witnessing profit booking at higher levels. Rallies are unable to sustain as the momentum is unsupportive. Overall, the Bank Nifty is underperforming the Nifty, and dips towards 49,600–49,500 should be used as a buying opportunity. On the upside, 50,500–50,600 is the immediate hurdle from a short-term perspective.
Key Support: 47,500 - 47,000 Key Resistance: 50,500 - 50,650
Kunal Shah, LKP Securities
The Bank Nifty Index witnessed a sideways session on the day of the weekly expiry and was unable to surpass the 50,000 mark, where the most open interest is built up on the call side. The index needs to decisively surpass the 50,000 mark to gain further momentum towards the 50,500/51,000 levels. The lower-end support is placed at 49,400, and a break below this level can accelerate further selling pressure.
Bank Nifty Support: 49,400-49,000 Bank Nifty Resistance: 50,200-50,300
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty May futures above 50,300 with a stop loss at 47,900, targeting 50,800/51,000. The resistance of Bank Nifty is placed at 50,300, and a break above this level will trigger further buying momentum.
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