The benchmark indices managed to close with moderate gains amid volatility in the week ended April 8, especially after the Friday's RBI move that was on expected lines, but there was a big underperformance, compared to broader markets. The Nifty Midcap index gained 3.6 percent and the Smallcap index rose 2.7 percent during the week, while the Nifty50 gained 0.6 percent to close at 17,784.
The good part was that the Nifty50 managed to hold on to the 17,600 mark, which experts feel can act as an immediate crucial support, with resistance remaining at 18,100, the recent highs touched by the market. Breaking on either side could give firm direction to the market in coming days, experts said. The index also strongly held above 50 DMA (17,140), 100 DMA (17,307) and 200 DMA (17,131).
"In the coming week, 17,600 followed by 17,400 are likely to provide some cushion for the index and till the time, we do not close below these key levels, we would continue with our 'buy on decline' strategy," Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives at Angel One, said.
On the flipside, he said, the first sign of strength would be visible after surpassing the 17,900 mark.
This week is likely to be truncated and hence, do not expect any big-bang move in key indices, he feels. "The upside as of now looks limited for the week towards 18,000–18,100. But the way broader market kept buzzing in the challenging phase last week as well, one must continue to focus outside the index."
The market will remain shut on April 14 for Mahavir Jayanti and Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti, and April 15 for Good Friday.
Here are the top 10 trading ideas by experts for the next 3-4 weeks. Returns are based on April 8 closing prices:
Expert: Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities
Equitas Holdings: Buy | LTP: Rs 119.4 | Stop-Loss: Rs 111 | Target: Rs 132 | Return: 10.5 percent
After showing rangebound action in the last one month, the stock price has moved up sharply in last week. Currently, the stock price has made an attempt of upside breakout of down sloping trend line around Rs 119-120 levels. Hence, a sustainable move above this area could open sharp upside ahead.
The larger degree of higher tops and bottoms is intact as per weekly timeframe chart and the stock price has formed a recent higher bottom at Rs 100 levels. Volume and weekly 14 period RSI (relative strength index) indicates further strengthening of upside momentum for the stock price ahead.
Buying can be initiated in Equitas at current market price), add more on dips down to Rs 114, and wait for the upside target of Rs 132 in the next 3-4 weeks. One can place a stop-loss of Rs 111.
National Fertilizers: Buy | LTP: Rs 60.60 | Stop-Loss: Rs 56 | Target: Rs 67.50 | Return: 11.4 percent
The below weekly timeframe chart of National Fertilizers indicates an excellent up-move over the last few weeks. The stock price has witnessed an upside breakout of the crucial resistance of down sloping trend line at Rs 59 and moved up in last week.
The present stock movement could be considered as a crucial upside breakout of an uptrend and a sharp up-move is likely to continue for the near term.
Volume has started to expand during upside breakout in the stock price and weekly 14 period RSI shows positive indication. Hence, one may expect further strengthening of upside momentum in the stock price ahead.
One may look to buy NFL at current market price, add more on dips down to Rs 58 and wait for the upside target of Rs 67.50 in the next 3-4 weeks, while placing stop-loss at Rs 56.
Bombay Dyeing and Manufacturing Company: Buy | LTP: Rs 106.50 | Stop-Loss: Rs 99.50 | Target: Rs 118 | Return: 10.8 percent
The below weekly timeframe chart of Bombay Dyeing indicates rangebound action over the last 5-6 weeks after a sharp decline of February month. The stock price is currently making an attempt to stage upside breakout of the range movement at Rs 106-107 levels. Hence a sustainable move above this area could open a sharp up-move for the stock price ahead.
The larger degree of positive sequence like higher tops and bottoms is intact and the stock price is now moving up after the formation of new higher bottom. Volume pattern and weekly 14 period RSI shows positive indication for the stock price ahead.
One may look to buy Bombay Dyeing at current market price, add more on dips down to Rs 102.50 and wait for the upside target of Rs 118 in the next 3-4 weeks, while placing a stop-loss of Rs 99.50.
Expert: Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company: Buy | LTP: Rs 741.75 | Stop-Loss: Rs 680 | Target: Rs 850-900 | Return: 14.6-21.3 percent
The stock is forming a series of higher tops and higher bottoms, which is extremely positive. The stock has again surpassed its previous highs last week with the decisive dismissal. Such a pattern helps the stock to move into a new bullish segment.
The Rs 680 level will be a great support for the stock and as long as the stock is trading above it, the chances of reaching Rs 850 or Rs 900 will be bright.
The strategy should be to buy at Rs 750 and add more at Rs 710. Place the last stop-loss at Rs 680.
UPL: Buy | LTP: Rs 809.75 | Stop-Loss: Rs 780 | Target: Rs 865-900 | Return: 7-11 percent
The stock is forming a V shaped recovery pattern, which indicates a sudden development in the stock, which may lift the stock above its previous highs. This is in contrast to the construction of a circular plane.
The rounding bottom formation enables the stock to make a gradual upward move, while the V-shaped recovery helps the stock to make a rapid upward move.
The stock is a buy at current levels with a stop-loss at Rs 780. At higher levels, resistance would be at Rs 865 and Rs 950 in the coming weeks.
Expert: Pushkaraj Sham Kanitkar, VP Equities at GEPL Capital
ITC: Buy | LTP: Rs 267.8 | Stop-Loss: Rs 242 | Target: Rs 325 | Return: 21 percent
ITC last week traded at a 52-week high. In the process it has broken out of six-month consolidation pattern spanning around a quadrilateral pattern. The daily chart shows that the prices have a tendency to move up in staggered manner since the panic lows of March 2020.
The first leg of consolidation saw it traded between Rs 160 and Rs 210 during August to December 2020. The next leg saw it consolidated between Rs 200-225. The current leg has traversed between Rs 210 and Rs 260.
The long-term moving averages are positively aligned with 50 DMA (daily moving average Rs 234.50) trading above the 100 as well as the 200 DMA (Rs 224), while the 100 DMA (Rs 228.5) is also in turn trading above the 200 DMA (224).
On the weekly charts, one can see a space in chart for up-move till Rs 325 (2018's high). The extrapolated price patterns target to indicate an up-move till around Rs 315-320 (Height of the quadrilateral).
The above view will get negated only if the momentum is lost and prices trade below the median at Rs 242 on a closing basis.
Bharti Airtel: Buy | LTP: Rs 762 | Stop-Loss: Rs 742 | Target: Rs 900 | Return: 18 percent
Bharti Airtel last week traded at a 52-week as well as an all-time high. In the process it has broken out of 6-month long consolidation pattern spanning around a W-shaped pattern. The daily chart shows that the prices have earlier too shown a tendency to move up in staggered manner. The W pattern may also be envisaged as a part of 'flag and pole', which can culminate successfully if prices cross above Rs 785.
The long-term moving averages are positively aligned with 50 DMA (Rs 714.85) trading above the 100 as well as the 200 DMA, while the 100 DMA (Rs 710.90) is also in turn trading above the 200 DMA (Rs 673.13). The latest cross over is part of parallel move of the 50-100 DMA encompassing over last 3 months, including the zigzags intermittently.
The extrapolated levels in contention would be Rs 900 mark, approximately the depth of W pattern after a breakout above the level of Rs 785. The above view will get negated only if the momentum is lost and prices trade below the median at Rs 742 on a closing basis.
Voltas: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,317.6 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,220 | Target: Rs 1,581 | Return: 20 percent
Voltas last week traded at a 52-week as well as an all-time high. In the process it is close to breaking out of 6-month long consolidation pattern spanning around a 'Rectangle' pattern.
Similar pattern spanned between February & September 2021, which was then followed by up-move till Rs 1,351 in October 2021.
The long-term moving averages are positively aligned with 50 DMA (Rs 1,231) trading above the 100 as well as the 200 DMA, while the 100 DMA (Rs 1,227) is also in turn trading above the 200 DMA (Rs 1,175). The latest cross over is part of parallel move of the 50-100 DMA encompassing over last 3 months, including the zig zags intermittently.
The extrapolated levels in contention would be Rs 1,581 mark, approximately the depth of rectangle pattern after a breakout above the level of Rs 1,351.
The above view will get negated only if the momentum is lost and prices trade below the convergence of 50-100 DMA at Rs 1,220.
Expert: Astha Jain, Senior Research Analyst at Hem Securities
Bharat Electronics: Buy | LTP: Rs 240 | Stop-Loss: Rs 207 | Target: Rs 260-280 | Return: 8.5-17 percent
On weekly charts, price action shows that after consolidating for 5-6 months, the stock has given strong breakout which signals further upside in stock.
Also MACD (moving average convergence divergence) crossed above its signal line which qualifies bullish trend in stock. Hence we recommend buy with stop-loss of Rs 207 and possible price targets of Rs 260-280.
Havells India: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,268 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,170 | Target: Rs 1,425 | Return: 12.4 percent
On weekly charts, the stock has closed above its all-important moving averages. Also, on volume front, the stock has seen one of highest volumes since December 2021.
Last Friday, the stock has been successfully closed above its major resistance zone of Rs 1,200-1,250 which indicates strength in stock.
Hence we recommend buy with stop-loss of Rs 1,170 and possible price target of Rs 1,425.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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