The market spent another week in the correctional zone, but took a good support at 19,300 and put up a nice recovery at the end of the week on August 4, which helped the index curtail losses and end the week down seven-tenth of a percent at 19,517.
The index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the weekly charts, while making a lower high, lower low formation. Going ahead, 19,500-19,600 is expected to be crucial for the benchmark to dash towards 19,800, whereas 19,300-19,200 is likely to be a critical support level, experts said.
"We are not completely out of the woods yet. Technically speaking, the Nifty slipped and closed below the 20-day EMA (19,541) for the first time since March 2023, and we are placed slightly below this," Sameet Chavan, Head of Research, Technical and Derivatives at Angel One, said.
So, till the time, the Nifty does not surpass the 19,550 – 19,600 level on a closing basis, one should avoid being complacent and ideally, it’s better to avoid aggressive trades, he advised.
In case of further global aberration, the Nifty may go back to challenge the 19,400 – 19,300 levels and a move below this would reinforce the selling pressure to slide towards the next important cluster of 19,000 – 18,800, he said.
At the end of last week, the market has left us with some ambiguity. Hence, he advised participants to take one step at a time.
Overall, Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice-President of Master Capital Services, also feels the market remains uncertain, and advised investors should closely monitor the support and resistance levels, technical indicators, and global economic developments to make informed decisions.
Let's take a look at the top 10 trading ideas by experts for the next three-four weeks. Returns are based on the August 4 closing prices:
Expert: Jigar S Patel, senior manager - equity research at Anand Rathi
PVRInox: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,617 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,510 | Target: Rs 1,740 | Return: 8 percent
The counter recently formed a bullish BAT pattern on a weekly scale with Rs 1,450-1,550 as the potential reversal zone and the current market price is well above it. Additionally, on a daily scale, PVR is sustaining above its all-major exponential moving averages.
Also, PVR has reversed from its PRZ (potential reversal zone) along with RSI (relative strength index) rebounding from 35-40 levels, thus heading with a bullish bias.
One can buy in the range of Rs 1,600-1,620 with an upside target of Rs 1,740 and the stop-loss would be Rs 1,510 on a daily close basis.
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra): Buy | LTP: Rs 79.65 | Stop-Loss: Rs 67 | Target: Rs 95 | Return: 19 percent
For the last two months, the counter has been making a base near its crucial support of Rs 70-72 which was also its monthly central pivot range.
From the indicator perspective, the daily RSI has rebounded from 50, which hints at further upside in the counter. One can buy in a small tranches in the range of Rs 77-80 and another in the range of Rs 74-75 (if tested) with an upside target of Rs 95 and a stop-loss would be Rs 67 on a closing basis.
Expert: Ruchit Jain, lead research at 5paisa.com
India Cements: Buy | LTP: Rs 224.75 | Stop-Loss: Rs 210 | Targets: Rs 240-250 | Return: 11 percent
The midcap cement stock was buzzing last week and certain stocks witnessed price up-moves with good volumes. This stock has recently seen a consolidation above its 89 DEMA (exponential moving average) support and now the momentum has turned positive.
The RSI oscillator has been rising and the volumes too are increasing gradually. Traders can look to buy the stock in the range of Rs 225-223 for potential near term targets of Rs 240 and Rs 250. The stop-loss on long positions should be placed below Rs 210.
Tata Chemicals: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,047.45 | Stop-Loss: Rs 985 | Targets: Rs 1,090-1,130 | Return: 8 percent
The stock had recently given a breakout from a long consolidation phase. Post the breakout, the prices rallied higher up to Rs 1,080 and has seen some pullback move in last few days.
The volumes were good during the breakout while the corrections have not seen higher volumes. Traders should use this dip as a buying opportunity as the broader trend seems positive on short to medium term charts.
Traders can buy the stock in the range of Rs 1,040-1,020 for potential near term targets of Rs 1,090 and Rs 1,130. The stop-loss on long positions should be placed below Rs 985.
Expert: Shrikant chouhan, head of equity research (retail) at Kotak Securities
Zee Entertainment Enterprises: Buy | LTP: Rs 234.35 | Stop-Loss: Rs 215 | Targets: Rs 270-287 | Return: 22.5 percent
On a daily basis, the stock is following a pattern of a higher top and higher bottom. In the last week, it declined to Rs 225 which is the support of 20-day and 200-day SMA (simple moving average) which could act as intermediate support for it.
On a monthly basis, it has set a higher bottom potential at Rs 166 and since then it has been crossing all swing levels without much effort. It is a buy at current levels and there is more downside at Rs 225. Keep a stop-loss at Rs 215 for a target of Rs 270 and Rs 287.
LTIMindtree: Buy | LTP: Rs 4,940.9 | Stop-Loss: Rs 4,700 | Targets: Rs 5,250-5,430 | Return: 10 percent
After crossing the barrier of Rs 5,050, it went to Rs 5,430, however, due to overall weakness in the IT stocks it came back to Rs 4,800-4,750, which was its earlier support before breaking the break-out level. Coincidently, it’s a support of 100-day SMA. The 200-day SMA is placed at Rs 4,700.
On Friday, the stock closed above the 20-day SMA, which is at Rs 4,930. During the week, the stock crossed the highest of the previous week.
Based on it, we believe the stock is a buy with a positional view at Rs 4,950 and at Rs 4,825, with a stop-loss at Rs 4,700. On the higher side, the stock can move to Rs 5,250 and to Rs 5,430.
Expert: Mitesh Karwa, research analyst at Bonanza Portfolio
PB Fintech: Buy | LTP: Rs 781 | Stop-Loss: Rs 730 | Target: Rs 890 | Return: 14 percent
The stock has seen breaking out of a rounding bottom life formation on the weekly timeframe after 14 months with a big bullish candlestick, adding to it the stock is trading and sustaining above all its important EMAs which can be used as a confluence towards the bullish view.
On the indicator front, the Ichimoku Cloud is also suggesting a bullish move as the price is trading above the conversion line, base line and cloud. Momentum oscillator RSI (relative strength index 14) is at around 62 on the daily time frame indicating strength by sustaining above 50.
Observation of the above factors indicates that a bullish move in PB Fintech is possible for target upto Rs 890. One can initiate a buy trade in between the range of Rs 770-775, with a stop-loss of Rs 730 on daily closing basis.
NBCC: Buy | LTP: Rs 47.45 | Stop-Loss: Rs 42.5 | Target: Rs 56 | Return: 18 percent
NBCC has seen breaking out of a Symmetrical triangle pattern with above average volumes and a big bullish candlestick on the weekly timeframe. It is also trading above important EMAs of 20/50/100/200 which indicates strength.
On the indicator front, the Supertrend indicator is indicating a bullish continuation, and momentum oscillator RSI (14) is at around 72 on the daily time frame indicating strength by sustaining above 50. Ichimoku Cloud is also suggesting a bullish move as the price is trading above the conversion line, base line and cloud on the daily timeframe.
Observation of the above factors indicates that a bullish move in NBCC is possible for target upto Rs 56. One can initiate a buy trade in the range of Rs 46.5-47 with a stop-loss of Rs 42.5 on daily closing basis.
Expert: Nagaraj Shetti, technical research analyst at HDFC Securities
Affle India: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,109 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,040 | Targets: Rs 1,205-1,310 | Return: 18 percent
The weekly timeframe chart of Affle India indicates sharp upside bounce in last week. We observe a formation of Bullish Flag type pattern and the stock price has witnessed decisive upside breakout of this pattern around Rs 1,100-1,110 levels in last week, before showing intra-week consolidation.
Hence, this pattern is likely to be an uptrend continuation and one may expect sharp upside momentum to continue in the near term. Weekly 14 period RSI has moved above the crucial upper 60 levels, which could reflect further strengthening of upside momentum in the stock price ahead.
Buying can be initiated in Affle at CMP, add more on dips down to Rs 1,075, wait for the upside targets of Rs 1,205 and Rs 1,310 in the next 3-5 weeks. Place a stop-loss of Rs 1,040.
Bajaj Finance August Futures: Sell | LTP: Rs 7,194.55 | Stop-Loss: Rs 7,510 | Target: Rs 6,750 | Return: 6 percent
The sharp up trended movement in Bajaj Finance seems to have completed and the stock price is currently showing an important top reversal pattern in the last few weeks at Rs 7,750 levels. After showing narrow range movement in the last two weeks, the stock price has slipped into weakness from the highs and closed at the lower as per weekly chart.
The immediate support of weekly 10 period EMA has been broken on the downside. The present weekly chart indicates a double top formation. Weekly 14 period RSI shows negative indication.
One may look to sell Bajaj Finance August Futures at CMP and add more on rise up to Rs 7,350. One can wait for the downside target of Rs 6,750 in the next 3 weeks, by placing a stop-loss of Rs 7,510.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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