Bank Nifty may outperform Nifty in September series: Bhamre

Below is the transcript of Siddharth Bhamre's interview with CNBC-TV18's Menaka Doshi and Anuj Singhal.Anuj: The thing that stands out right now is the rollovers. The Nifty rollovers look slightly on the higher side, the Bank Nifty is quite low how would you read into that or would you have slightly different view on that?A: If you are tracking data closely, if you look at the percentage that Bank Nifty since last 4-5 months is showing lesser rollover in terms of percentage compared to Nifty. So, I won't read too much into it. Rollovers are inline.What we are observing is last series Bank Nifty underperformed the Nifty. This series the performance is at par, Nifty and Bank Nifty have given more or less same returns. Going ahead in September series we are expecting Bank Nifty to outperform the Nifty, not by a very wide margin but we are expecting some kind of outperformance. So, that would be our observation from the two index.Rollover data is inline and inline with three month averages, so nothing much to read from there.Anuj: Oil stocks, BPCL, ONGC, they have done reasonably well. How will you be positioned on those in the September series?A: Two stocks in the PSU space which we are tarcking closely is HPCL and ONGC. We believe it would be now a range bound movement for them but obviously with positive bias. We won't short them but at dips we will buy but not with an expectation of the kind of returns they have given in last few months.HPCL, if it comes down to Rs 425-430 or Rs 415 then it is in a buying zone for us and again at Rs 450-460, which it is currently trading right now we would book profit, we won't short there but we will book profit and move out.More or less similar levels for ONGC. So, ONGC if it comes down to Rs 400-410, it is a good buy. If it moves above to those Rs 460-470 levels, I won't be very positive on ONGC. So, it is a range bound play.Again a range bound play is Reliance in oil and gas though not a PSU company. Implied volatility is still very low. Rs 1030-1040 on the higher side, Rs 970-980 on the lower side. So, these are the ranges. You can play in this range accordingly. Sometimes more than a momentum stock these range bound stocks can give money to traders.Anuj: For September series then volatility is still slightly on the lower side. You have a 8000 Call available at Rs 100, you have 7900 Put available at just Rs 70, that is quite interesting. Even when the series has not started and it is a reasonably long series. Any good strategy in terms of hedging or in terms of pure directional call? A: If you recall even in August series beginning the premiums were very attractive to form long straddle or strangle but you would appreciate the fact that if somebody had formed that long strangle or straddle wouldn’t have made much money because market has not shown that kind of a move. Again the repeat of that may happen but rather than making long straddle or strangle I would have a positive bias and buy some options. Data which we are seeing is that 8200-8300 Call options are attracting lot of buying interest and that too from stronger hands. So, if not till those levels market would tend probably at least in first half to move towards 8150-8200 levels in September series.So, I would trade with positive bias, won't get too attracted by the low premium of Put options through the implies volatility of Put option at this point of time is lower than that of Call options.So, still I would prefer being positive bias and trade with positive bias. No option strategy in terms of shorting and even in strangle straddle I won't go long. It would be purely buy Call option trades which we would recommend if I have to do something in Nifty. Ideally we prefer going long in Bank Nifty or Nifty Futures but options if somebody has any compulsion only of option trading then buying Call options slightly out of money is advisable.Anuj: Final thoughts, for today there is no trading opportunity or at least looks like that may not be the case. For September then what would be the stop loss for your long positions since you are saying that you would rather go long on the Nifty Futures than play it with options, what would be a trailing stop loss for your Nifty Futures position?A: Since it is a positional call and we are thinking about good move in market it has to be a deep stop loss. 7780-7770 a closing below those levels would probably change our perception. If market has to close below those levels you would see change in FIIs data or other data's also which would compel us to form some different opinion than what we have. So, that would be a range which we would be looking out which is good 150-160 points away from current levels.