Exchange-traded funds focused on artificial intelligence are proliferating as asset managers offer investors new ways to tap in to the market enthusiasm for AI, even while it remains unclear which companies will emerge as the long-term winners from the latest technology revolution.
More than one-third of the two dozen ETFs that include artificial intelligence or AI in their name have been launched in 2024 alone, according to data from Morningstar.
In the past week, three more joined their ranks, including a cloud computing ETF rebranded and revamped to specifically target AI. The AI ETF group now has assets of $4.5 billion, drawing it closer to the $5.5 billion nuclear power-themed ETF universe, and pushing it well above the cannabis sector, with $1.37 billion in assets.
"I'm not surprised their ranks are multiplying," said Daniel Sotiroff, senior analyst at Morningstar. "This is a fast-growing, fast-moving industry, and it is easy to hope that you could end up making a lot of money in a short period of time."
The 200%-plus stock gain by chipmaker Nvidia - AI's poster child - over the last 12 months likely just reaffirms that confidence, Sotiroff said.
Beyond Nvidia, AI is likely to produce a larger and broader swath of beneficiaries in the future, said Tony Kim, head of the fundamental equities technology group at BlackRock. Kim is the manager of the two new AI-themed ETFs launched by BlackRock on Tuesday, the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF and the iShares Technology Opportunities Active ETF.
The first of the firm's AI products, the $630 million iShares Future AI & Tech ETF, launched in 2018, currently trades just below a 52-week high recorded on Oct. 14.
While its initial AI product is linked to an index, the two new funds are actively managed and designed to capture emerging opportunities within AI, according to Jay Jacobs, head of active and thematic ETFs at BlackRock.
"The AI market is going to change dramatically," said Kim. "What you think it is today, isn’t going to be what it becomes tomorrow or next year or in a few years."
ARMS RACE
BofA Securities market analysts Ohsung Kwon and Savita Subramanian said in a recent report they believe there is "an AI arms race" under way among giant technology companies like Microsoft and Amazon.com. They calculate that capital spending this year from four megacaps making big AI bets will total $206 billion, up 40% over 2023. Meanwhile, capital spending by the other 496 companies in the S&P 500 will dip slightly, they project.
Venture capital firms also are directing as much as $79.2 billion in funding to AI startups by the end of the year, 27% above 2023 levels, according to an estimate from venture firm Accel. That means that 40 cents of every dollar invested by VC firms will go to an AI company.
Of course, investing in an AI-themed ETF does not guarantee market outperformance. The largest of the AI funds, the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF, is up about 20% so far this year, against a 22% rise for the benchmark S&P 500.
Amplify ETFs earlier this month rebranded an existing cloud-computing ETF to reflect a new focus on the emerging technology, naming it the Amplify Bloomberg AI Value Chain ETF.
"Now, we're trying to get exposure to the cloud with a specific AI tilt," said Nathan Miller, vice president of product development at Amplify.
The long-term goal, he added, is to be ready to profit if and when all that capital spending on AI starts to show up in earnings, and be ahead of the curve in identifying new opportunities.
"Like every ETF firm out there, we are trying to offer investors something differentiated," Miller said.
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