In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Ryan Detrick, Chief Strategist at Schaeffer's Investment spoke about the issues surrounding the US economy and why he thinks US fiscal cliff issue is more challenging than the Euro zone crisis.
Detrick feels that in December the market has made a pretty decent bottom and even though world wide concerns persist yet, the trend is higher.
Below is an edited transcript of Ryan Detrick's interview on CNBC-TV18.
A: So far they have done pretty good. We just did a quick study at least on the S&P 500 since 1980 and this has actually been fifth strongest Black Friday returns since then. So obviously we are off to a good start, but is it really because of Black Friday or are there other things at work?
Obviously US markets were close yesterday, so it is a little bit of catch up here like you have been talking about. There is some decent economic data coming out of China and Europe. So, it looks like the US markets might have made a fairly significant bottom here earlier this week and we had a very strong holiday show on weekend today that may move things upwards. Q: How big a concern is the failure of the EU leaders to arrive at a budget consensus for Wall Street? Is it a big overhang for stocks at this point or is Wall Street likely to take it in its stride because the deal will be arrived in early 2013?
A: I do think that is something that is probably mixed in the cake. Clearly, we seem to be more focused on the continuing fiscal cliff issues. At Schaeffer's we look at the world based on sentiment expectations. To keep this simple, there is a lot of fear out there.
A year ago, I remember talking to people about Black Friday Greece is going to go under and what worldwide economy is going to go under. For various sentiment polls were flashing extreme bearishness like we are seeing right now with the concerns over fiscal cliff. So, we might have very well scared ourselves once again potentially into a big bottom.
Let us not forget December, at least on the S&P, is the strongest month going back for last 30 years, just about 2 percent returns. So historically, this is the time when you want to be long also with all the fear that is out there with the fact that market looks like again it has made a pretty decent bottom. We would be of the opinion that, yes, worldwide concerns are there, but the market looks like it simply wants to trend higher. We are bullish into December.
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