Key events next week: ECB rate decision, Apple event, UK elections, OPEC+ and more

There are expectations that OPEC+ will discuss output cuts. OPEC+ is likely to keep oil output quotas unchanged for October at Monday's meeting, three OPEC+ sources said, although some sources would not rule out a production cut to bolster prices that have slid from sky-high levels hit earlier this year.

Oil prices have been extremely volatile in recent weeks. Many OPEC and OPEC+ producers are lacking the capacity to raise output due to insufficient oilfield investment as well as various Western sanctions in the case of Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

Liz Truss vs Rishi Sunak: New UK PM to be announced on September 5

The campaign to elect a new Conservative Party leader and British Prime Minister drew to a close. Indian-origin former Chancellor Rishi Sunak squared off against Foreign Secretary Liz Truss for the final time on Wednesday night (August 31) in front of Conservative Party members who will decide the contest.

Liz Truss is heavily tipped to win the contest to replace outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson, after leading rival Rishi Sunak in polls of the Tory grassroots for much of the race.

Postal and online voting by the estimated 200,000 party members, which began earlier this month, closes on Friday before the winner is announced next Monday (September 5).

Apple event on September 7

Apple’s launch event is expected to see the company unveil the iPhone 14, a new Apple Watch series, new AirPods Pro and other products.

The company sent out invites towards the end of last month. The invitation, which has the tagline 'Far out,' is for an in-person launch event at the Steve Jobs Theater.

Bank of Canada interest rate decision on September 7

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to deliver yet another oversized interest rate hike next week, lifting its policy rate into restrictive territory for the first time in two decades, but bets are split on whether or not a pause will follow.

Estimates suggest that the central bank may be leaning toward a hike of 75 basis points, which would take the policy rate to 3.25 percent. That would be the fourth oversized rate increase this year, capping 300 basis points of tightening since March. Some economists predict the Canadian central bank may signal a pause.

The Bank of Canada surprised the market in July when it raised interest rates from 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent.

China trade data on September 7

Ahead of the China trade numbers which will be out on September 7, concerns about the Chinese economy have intensified. China’s continued shutdowns to contain Covid is hampering economic activity in the region. China, UK, and the Euro-zone manufacturing PMI (purchase managers’ index) remained below 50, indicating contraction in the sector.

ECB interest rate decision on September 8

Global markets are waiting for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting on Thursday (September 8).

European Central Bank (ECB) as it gears up for another rate rise. After the ECB raised interest rates by a larger-than-expected 0.5 percentage points in July, many analysts expected a further half-point increase at this month’s meeting.

However, after inflation in the eurozone rose to a record 9.1 percent in the year to August, there is expectation that the ECB would keep raising rates to contain the hottest inflation since the creation of the common currency. Traders are ramping up bets for a 75 basis-point rate hike. They see better than 50 percent odds for a 75 bps move by the ECB after a parade of ECB speakers at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole backed the case for a big hike.

Despite the gloomy outlook, the European Central Bank is expected to keep raising rates to contain the hottest inflation since the creation of the common currency.

ECB raised interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points in July.

The purchasing managers index for the 19-nation euro zone slipped to 49.6 in August from 49.8 in July, according to S&P Global -- a reflection of dwindling demand as consumers face surging costs for energy and a broadening range of goods and services.

China (August) Inflation data on September 9

China will announce the inflation data for August on September 9. Its zero-COVID policy has forced several parts of the country to shut down. In such a situation, the country's inflation figures will be highly anticipated by markets. While Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation has cooled down from the double-digit territory it was in late 2021, consumer inflation in July rose to 2.7 percent – the joint-highest since April 2020.

China's industrial growth came in below expectations at 3.8 percent in July, with growth in retail sales also missing forecasts.