India may lose around a quarter of its GDP in a high-emission scenario, where global temperatures rise by 4.7 degrees Celsius by the end of 2100 and the country fails to reach its net-zero target by 2070, a report by Asian Development Bank noted on October 31.
The multilateral institution noted that South East Asia, Pakistan and the Philippines are likely to be less affected compared to India, but Bangladesh and Vietnam would lose 30 percent of their GDP by 2070. “By 2070, climate change under a high-end emissions scenario could cause a total loss of 16.9 percent of GDP across the Asia and Pacific region,” it said.
The cost of inaction has been rising as the new numbers are higher than the previous estimates run by the Manila-based institution.
China, on the other hand, is set to lose 10 percent of the GDP by 2070.
Temperatures in West and Central Asia are set to rise by 8 degrees Celsius in this case, while East and South East Asia are expected to witness 7 and 5 degrees rise in temperatures.
A high-end emission scenario entails days with temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius doubling from 100 to 200 by 2100.
The damage from inaction towards climate change is likely to be exponential, with India losing just around 5 percent of the GDP in high-end emissions scenario by 2035, which will ramp up to around 13 percent by 2050 and reach 24.7 percent by 2070.
It is expected to rise above 55 percent if global warming push temperatures up by 4.7 degree Celsius.
In a medium-emissions scenario, India is set to lose 25 percent by 2100 and around 12 percent in low-emissions scenario.
The medium emission scenario estimates a global mean temperature rise of 2.4-3.3 degrees Celsius by 2100, while low emissions scenario estimates a 1.6 degrees rise in temperatures by 2100.
Heat waves to blaze labour
Labour productivity is likely to be the biggest casualty for India, accounting for nearly 50 percent of the loss in GDP by 2070 in a high-emission scenario, the report noted. “For many countries, effects on labour productivity from heat waves are large and rank second or even dominate losses,” the report said.
India’s loss was calculated at 11.6 percent, lower than South East Asia’s at 11.9 percent, but higher than Pakistan (10.4 percent), and Vietnam (8.5 percent).
The country will lose another 5.1 percent from increased energy demand, while 4 percent of the GDP will be taken away by river-based flooding.
Asia Pacific needs $102 billion per year to mitigate the effects of climate change, the ADB report noted, with India and China needing the most.
India has set a goal of achieving net zero by 2070 and is one of the few countries set to achieve some of its Nationally Determined Contribution goals by 2030, as per the 2015 Paris agreement.
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