Vaibhav Agrawal of Angel Broking gave his views on HDFC's Q4 numbers.
Below is the verbatim transcript of Vaibhav Agrawal's interview with Ekta Batra on CNBC-TV18.
Q: Your first take in terms of the profit this quarter for HDFC?
A: The bottom line number actually has come in line with what we were expecting. The net interest income looks to be little bit below estimates so we will have to look into the reasons for that. Again the non-interest income - the profit on sale and the dividend income that they have is more or less in line with what we were building at about Rs 47 crore.
Q: How much has it come in at, the other income which is the dividend plus profit on sale from investments?
A: So the number that they report that is at Rs 247 crore put together for their dividend, profit on sale and other income so that is at Rs 247 crore which is similar to these 3Q numbers as well as the 4Q last year number.
Q: But isn't it better?
A: A little better than what the run rate they had in the previous quarter but more or less in line with what we were expecting.
Q: The loan has come in at around Rs 2.28 lakh crore and this compares to Rs 2.19 lakh crore in the previous quarter. How would you read that, the loan book?
A: Again the loan book more or less is in line with what we have been looking at for HDFC. So there are no surprises there.
Q: Overall we are still waiting for more details from the management but how would you rate the numbers and why do you think the stock is down 1.7 percent based on the standalone net profit which has just grown in single digits?
A: The net profit seems to be in line but net interest income itself is a little lower than what we were building in, so we will have to see what are the reasons for that because the loan growth itself also is in line with estimates of about 15 percent. So one has to see where these spreads and NIMs have probably come in, otherwise broadly it is sort of inline numbers with slightly lower net interest income.
Q: Do you think that maybe there could be a correction based on valuations just on the fact that this stock is trading so expensive?
A: Broadly, the stock is trading at fair value, the fair value that we would attribute to it so we have a neutral stance, we would not expect significant down side or upside to the stock from these levels.
Q: I have the press release with me on more of the details if we could hold for a minute I will get the NIMs out. It stands at 4 percent for the fiscal so its come in at 4 percent versus 3.93 percent as of 9 month FY15 so that is a positive that indicates an improvement in the quarter gone by so NIMs at four percent would be positive for them. The spread on loans for the fiscal has come in at 2.32 percent, this is similar to what they did in 9 months which is at 2.3 percent so that too is a positive which is coming in, so these two parameters seem to be maintained at this point in time. The non-performing loans the NPL has come in at 0.67 percent so that compares to around 0.69. Take us through these figures, 0.67 on the Gross NPL as well as the NIMs at four percent for the fiscal as well as 2.32 on the spreads for the fiscal?
A: Again those numbers are pretty rock steady, again broadly in line with what they have been doing in the past so again no surprises over there as well. Seems to be an inline sort of performance on all those parameters.
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