Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), India’s largest conglomerate, has seen a notable shift in sentiment among analysts over the past quarter following a correction in its stock price, according to Moneycontrol's December analyst call tracker.
As of December, the stock had 33 “buy”, three “hold”, and three “sell” recommendations from brokerages, compared to 25 “buy”, eight “hold”, and three “sell” calls a quarter earlier.
The change in outlook comes after RIL’s shares fell nearly 20 percent from their July peak. Analysts now view this underperformance in 2024 as an opportunity, with the stock trading at an attractive valuation that presents a strong entry point for potential gains as key catalysts unfold in 2025.
Global brokerage Goldman Sachs has highlighted that the 15 percent drop in RIL’s stock since October 2024 (compared to a 7 percent decline in the BSE Sensex) appears excessive. The brokerage believes the stock is now trading near its bear-case scenario, which factors in lower refining margins, weak telecom ARPU growth, and limited market share expansion in retail. Goldman has reiterated its “buy” rating and raised its target price by 26 percent to Rs 1,595 per share.
Similarly, CLSA has acknowledged that ongoing weakness in retail profitability has been a drag on the stock but expects a strong recovery in the second half of 2025. This optimism is driven by the ramp-up of AirFiber subscribers for Reliance Jio, the full impact of recent tariff hikes, and potential additional hikes ahead of a likely Jio IPO in late 2025. CLSA has maintained its outperform rating with a target price of Rs 1,650, indicating an upside of 32 percent.
Analysts also point to several key triggers for RIL in FY26, including the restoration of mid-teens growth in retail, a potential listing of Jio, and an improvement in O2C profitability as it rebounds from cyclical lows. Valuations are also attractive, with RIL trading at 9.7x forward EBITDA, the stock’s cheapest level since the Covid correction.
Jefferies projects a 14 percent EBITDA growth for FY26, driven by a 17 percent increase in retail and 23 percent growth in Jio. The brokerage has maintained its buy recommendation with a target price of Rs 1,690 per share.
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