ICICI direct.com has come with its September`12 quarterly earning estimates for power space. According to research report, in YTD FY13 (April-August 2012), aggregate incremental capacity addition was 6706 MW (6369 MW in April-August 2011). Our coverage universe has added 1127 MW (Tata Power -800 MW, JPVL -250 MW and NHPC - 77MW) during this quarter while 2210 MW (NTPC -1160 MW, Tata Power – 800, NHPC -77 MW and JPVL -250 MW) has been commercialised. The installed capacity currently stands at 2,07,006 MW. Electricity generation during April-August 2012 has increased by 4.7% YoY. Average base deficit during April-August 2012 was 8.5% (increase of 260 bps YoY) while average peak deficit was 9.0% (increase of 80 bps YoY).
During Q2FY13, international spot thermal coal prices (6700 kcal) declined 9% QoQ and 28% YoY. Currency, on a QoQ basis, has depreciated by 1.2%, thus partially negating the benefits for merchant IPPs.
From our coverage universe, we expect EBITDA margins to marginally contract by 20 bps on YoY basis and increase 50 bps on QoQ basis. We expect increase in PAT margin by 370 bps on YoY basis (Tata Power reported a loss in Q2FY12). From coverage universe CESC and Power Grid are expected strong numbers on YoY basis.
| Revenue Rs crore | PAT Rs crore | |||
| Q2FY13E | % Change YoY | Q2FY13E | % Change YoY | |
| CESC | 1,418.00 | 15.9 | 128.6 | 12.8 |
| JP Hydro | 911.9 | 35.9 | 409.6 | 45.9 |
| NHPC | 1,468.20 | -25.9 | 681.9 | -29.4 |
| NTPC | 15,014.20 | -4.4 | 2,374.90 | -2 |
| Power Grid | 2,510.50 | 10.9 | 873.2 | 23.2 |
| PTC India | 3,059.90 | 28.1 | 36 | 3 |
| Tata Power | 7,232.00 | 15.1 | 93.6 | LP |
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