The verdict of the Karnataka assembly election has resulted in generating new debates about whether this verdict gives any indication for how Indian politics is going to unfold in coming months when many state assembly elections are due by end of this year and the big 2024 Lok Sabha is due early next year. Many questions are being raised after the Congress resounding victory in Karnataka, but let me focus on four main questions. Four Questions
First, does this verdict give any indication for what might happen in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Second, if this verdict helps us understand better how Congress might perform in forthcoming assembly elections due in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where it is the ruling party and in Madhya Pradesh and Telangana where it is the main opposition party?
There are two other questions which are being discussed. If the defeat of BJP means the beginning of the decline of BJP in South or more strongly to say if this is an end to BJP’s dream of expanding in the South? Lastly, questions are also being asked about the future of JD(S) if Karnataka is essentially heading for a bipolar contest and this defeat marks an end for the JD(S) politics in the state?
No 2024 Impact
To the question if this verdict gives any indication of what might happen in 2024, my answer is a clear no. There are many examples to suggest how people are voting differently when electing the State government and when they vote to elect the Central Government. The 2018 assembly elections of Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, 2015 assembly elections of Delhi offer clear evidence on this score.
In the first three states people elected the Congress government, but voted for BJP in a big way during the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The AAP registered a massive victory during the 2015 Assembly elections, but the Delhi voters elected all seven BJP MPs from Delhi in 2019. Karnataka in itself is a good example of split voting if we look at how people have voted during the last four assembly elections and four Lok Sabha elections. So, drawing inferences from the state level verdict for what might happen in Lok Sabha elections would be making a mistake.
Go Local, But There’s Modi Factor
Even drawing parallels from the Karnataka verdict for the coming state assembly elections in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan would be inappropriate. Yes, Congress has registered a convincing victory in Karnataka, but it does not give us any indication of how the party might perform in the three Hindi heartland states that are poised for a bipolar contest, which was not the case in Karnataka.
There are only two templates which could be used by the Congress for challenging the BJP in three Hindi states i.e. reliance for campaign on local leadership and on local issues. But for that also there is a word of caution, in Karnataka the anti-incumbency was against the BJP as it was the ruling party, it could successfully raise the local issues, corruption being the main issue, but Congress would be at a receiving end being in power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
The party was far more united in Karnataka, at least during the campaign, compared to the sense we get from Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh presently. So the template of local issues is useful but to be used with great caution. One should also not forget that Prime Minister Narendra Modi can make a difference campaigning in Hindi states than in a state where people speak a language which the Prime Minister doesn’t. So that also needs to be kept in mind and I would refrain from drawing parallels from the Karnataka verdict and for the forthcoming state assembly elections.
One Defeat, Many Hasty Conclusions
Getting defeated in an election is certainly a setback for any party, but one defeat does not seal the fate of any political party. This applies for the BJP’s expansion plans in the South and for the fortunes of JD(S). It is true that if BJP had won this election, their expansion plans for the South would have rolled out much faster, it would have consolidated its support base in the South, and it would have found it easier to move ahead for its expansion in Southern states.
But this defeat does not mean that the doors of the South have been shut for BJP forever. We need to wait to see how it performs in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka. The same applies for the JD(S). Yes JD(S) has suffered a major setback, but that does mean it is an end for JD(S) politics in Karnataka. The party might face challenges even in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, but we need to wait for five more years to see how it performs in the 2028 assembly elections to come to a conclusion.
Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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