As the climate continues to warm, the world is facing more heatwaves and floods. Researchers warn that millions of people could soon be at greater risk from fungal infections. Fungi, some of which cause serious disease, are adapting quickly to environmental shifts. A recent study shows how rising temperatures will influence the spread of harmful fungi, with worrying results, especially for Europe. From crop failure to deadly lung infections, the forecasted spread of these pathogens could reshape health systems and economies.
A new research shows that without meaningful action to reduce fossil fuel use, Europe could face a surge in fungal infections by 2040. Fungal spores, which travel easily through the air, will thrive in warmer, wetter climates. The fungi, Aspergillus flavus, could increase its range by 16 percent, exposing an extra one million people to possible infection. It also attacks crops, putting food supplies at risk.
Even more concerning, Aspergillus fumigatus, a major cause of life-threatening lung infections, may see a 77.5 percent increase in spread, potentially endangering nine million people.
According to The University of Manchester and Oxford researchers, these findings are based on modelling under the IPCC’s worst-case scenario (SSP585), which assumes continued fossil fuel dependency.
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The study, funded by Wellcome and published via Research Square, shows how three major fungi, A. flavus, A. fumigatus and A. niger, could expand across the globe as temperatures climb.
Earlier, the World Health Organization (WHO), suggested that Aspergillus flavus, along with other Aspergillus species, can cause a disease called aspergillosis. This fungal infection primarily affects people with weakened immune systems, such as cancer patients, organ transplant recipients, or people with chronic lung diseases.
As per WHO, Aspergillosis most commonly begins in the lungs, where the spores are inhaled. However, in severe or untreated cases, the infection can spread to other organs, leading to a potentially life-threatening condition known as invasive aspergillosis.
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What to watch as fungi spread with climate change:
- Lung infections could surge: Aspergillus fumigatus causes respiratory infections and thrives in warm, damp environments. The projected spread could cause a steep rise in hospitalisations, especially among vulnerable groups.
- Crop devastation looms: Aspergillus flavus not only affects people but ruins crops, producing dangerous toxins like aflatoxins. Food shortages and economic impacts are likely if the fungus spreads further.
- Resistance to treatment is growing: Fungal infections are increasingly resistant to available treatments, made worse by fungicide overuse in agriculture.
- Lack of awareness slows response: Fungi are often overlooked in medical research. Few diagnostics or vaccines exist, and many infections are misdiagnosed or missed entirely.
- Healthy people may not be safe: Though the immunocompromised are at greatest risk, fungi could evolve in warmer climates to infect healthy people more easily.
- Urgent action needed: With millions potentially at risk, researchers and global health leaders stress the need for more funding, better surveillance and aggressive climate mitigation. As fungi continue to adapt, our approach to public health must adapt too.
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