In the fourth phase of voting which is taking place today for 96 Lok Sabha seats and to elect a new government in Andhra Pradesh. In this phase, all political parties have something to look forward to in this round of elections. The Congress having formed the government in Telangana, defeating the Bhartiya Rashtriya Samiti (BRS) is hoping to improve its tally from 3 seats it had won in 2019. The BJP will also hope to improve its tally in Telangana from four seats that it had won in the last Lok Sabha elections.
In Andhra Pradesh, the two regional parties’ Telugu Desham Party (TDP) and YSRCP Congress Party would be battling to prove its political supremacy, YSRCP has been in power for the last five years and TDP has worked very hard to defeat it. So the Congress, BJP and regional parties are locked in a fierce battle in the fourth phase of voting. While there are seats in other states which goes to poll in this round of election but all eyes are on the crucial battle of the Deccan.
Also read: 2024 Lok Sabha election
Over all this phase of voting is not very favourable for the BJP, as of the total 96 Lok Sabha seats, BJP would be defending 42 with a vote share of 28.3 percent, far less compared to BJP’s average vote share of 37.3 percent in the entire country during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Its allies would be defending another 14 seats with vote share of 15.8 percent. The Congress like other phase remains weak even in this phase, would be defending only 6 seats with a vote share of 15.1 percent. The regional parties would be holding the fort in this phase, they would be defending 33 seats with a vote share of 32.3 percent, quite understandable as the entire state of AP and Telangana with presence of very strong regional parties, goes to polls in this region. In fact, the contest in AP is mainly between the two regional giants, TDP and YSRCP, Congress and BJP having limited presence in the state, though BJP has been able to form an alliance with TDP in order to make inroads in state politics. So, an interesting battle is in the offing in the two Deccan states, AP and Telangana.
While the focus will be on AP and Telangana, but other states to watch in this phase are 13 seats from UP, 11 seats from Maharashtra, 8 seats from both MP and West Bengal each, 5 seats from Bihar, 4 from Odisha and Jharkhand each, and one from the UT of J&K. Of the total 42 seats which BJP is defending in this region, 13 seats are from UP, and 8 from MP. In UP the most interesting contest would be at Kannauj, a direct challenge by former CM Akhilesh Yadav, against BJP heavy weight Subhrat Pathak.
In AP the YSRCP would be defending its existing 22 seats while the TDP would need to defend 3 of its existing seats. In AP, the Kamala Lok Sabha seat would be worth watching as the candidate from Congress is YS Sharmila, the sister of the sitting CM from YSRCP, Jagmohan Reddy.
In Telangana, the TRS would need to defend 9 of its existing seats, with the BJP to defend 4 seats, the INC 3, and a single seat by AIMIM. Here the only seat of AIMIM is in the Hyderabad constituency, where the BJP has placed Madhavi Latha, an actress turned politician.
In Bihar of the total 5 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP here would need to defend 3 seats, while its ally -- JDU would need to defend its single seat at Munger. Its other ally LJP, would also need to defend its seat at Samastipur. In Bihar, the most interesting contest is in Begusarai where Giriraj Singh is defending his seat.
In Bengal, of the 8 seats, BJP would have to defend 3 seats, and the TMC would need to defend its 4 existing seats. Meanwhile, for Bengal, the seat of Krishnanagar has the popular spokesperson of the TMC, Mohua Moitra standing against Amrita Roy, a royal, who is also the richest candidate in this phase of the election. Secondly, the contestation at Beharampur would be a tough one between Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury from Congress, and cricketer Yusuf Pathan, from the TMC. Adhir Ranjan was one of the members of the committee that elects the top brass of the election commission.
In Maharashtra, the BJP would need to defend 7 of its seats, 2 for Shiv Sena, 1 for NCP and 1 for AIMIM of the 11 seats that goes to polls.
In Jharkhand of the 4 seats, the BJP would defend 3 of its seats and Congress 1 Lok Sabha seat. The key candidate is Arjun Munda, a union minister while of the 4 seats of Odisha, BJD would be defending 2 Lok Sabha seats and one each by the BJP and the Congress.
Even though neither Delhi nor Punjab goes to poll in this round of election where Aam Aadmi Party has high stakes, but still it would also be interesting to see what may be the impact of Arvind Kejriwal’s entry into the election campaign in the fourth and subsequent phases of elections.
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