In the Indian Constitution, there is no concept of a deputy chief minister. It is a post ‘created’ over the last few years to either keep a coalition partner close or a fellow party-man in good humour. But in Maharashtra, the BJP should, by no measure, settle for a deputy CM post.
There are three big reasons why the party must insist on its own chief minister. One, BJP has 132 seats plus at least five more winners, who either as Independents have announced support to the BJP or are from the party who contested on the symbol of its allies. That takes the BJP tally effectively to 137, just eight short of majority, and two-and-a-half times Eknath Shinde’s tally. People have given the overwhelming mandate for the BJP, which must be respected.
Two, Maharashtra cannot follow the Bihar template as advocated by the Shinde camp, as the circumstances in both states are entirely different. Unlike to Nitish Kumar in Bihar in 2020 elections, no promise was made to Eknath Shinde by the BJP that he will continue as chief minister after the 2024 elections irrespective of the numbers.
Three, the BJP must not ignore the demand of the state cadre and leaders or risk a ‘Pawar crisis’ by not going for its own chief minister. It should not create another Nitish Kumar out of Shinde, but rather bring him around in a way that it won’t offend the Maratha community and Shinde himself proposes the name of Devendra Fadnavis as the next CM.
Why Maharashtra is Not Like Bihar
Let’s begin with the second reason first. BJP has played second fiddle to the JDU in Bihar since 2005 till date, almost two decades, settling for the deputy CM post. This was because JDU won more seats than BJP in the elections in 2005, 2010, and 2015. In 2015, BJP in fact did not come to power as JDU had allied with RJD before Nitish Kumar later joined hands with BJP, which again settled for the deputy CM post.
In the 2020 elections, BJP announced before the elections that irrespective of who among them won more seats, Nitish Kumar will be the chief minister. BJP fulfilled that promise, despite winning nearly 30 more seats than the JDU, and Kumar is still the CM.
But the BJP made no such promise to Eknath Shinde during the Maharashtra election campaign. Home Minister Amit Shah made it clear on many occasions that while the election was being fought under the leadership of CM Shinde, the call on the next chief minister will be taken after the elections.
Also, BJP won more seats than the united Shiv Sena in 2014 (122 compared to 63) and Devendra Fadnavis became the chief minister. In 2019, BJP again was the single-largest party with 105 seats. Shinde with less than half those MLAs joined hands with the BJP in 2022 and was made the chief minister.
Senior NCP leader Praful Patel told CNN-News18 on Monday that what happened in 2022 were “different circumstances" and “BJP is the largest party in these elections".
He was perhaps hinting at the fact that Shinde had to be rewarded by the BJP in 2022 with the CM’s post as he had effectively helped formed the government and Fadnavis was forced to make the ‘sacrifice’ by demoting himself to deputy CM. Those were rather peculiar circumstances.
Look at the Numbers
At 132 seats, BJP has notched up its best performance in the state and a near-majority on its own. Such a huge mandate for the party at a nearly 85 per cent strike rate shows how the people have trusted the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message.
The RSS has thrown its weight behind the BJP campaign, as well as Devendra Fadnavis, who has arguably the best links with the Sangh in the state besides Nitin Gadkari.
Several BJP leaders in the state whom this correspondent spoke to said the cadre will be left disheartened if the BJP does not install its own chief minister after such a mandate. To quote one senior party leader: “If we don’t get a BJP CM even after winning 132 seats, just 12 short of a majority on our own, when will we?"
It has been BJP’s old ambition to get charge of Maharashtra, away from the ‘Matoshree’ influence that the party’s earlier state leaders like Pramod Mahajan seemed to be afflicted with. This is one reason that BJP took the big call in 2019 to not succumb to the demands of Uddhav Thackeray for the CM’s chair and stayed out of power till 2022.
The present mandate gives BJP its best chance to roll out its big development agenda in Maharashtra with a true double-engine of the PM and its own CM.
Keeping the Flock Together
BJP also must keep in consideration that Ajit Pawar has thrown his weight behind Devendra Fadnavis and may not be comfortable with Shinde as the chief minister again. While Shinde has 57 MLAs now, Ajit Pawar has 41 and is also the senior-most politician among the three.
Clearly, a delicate rope needs to be walked here by the BJP to convince Shinde that he needs to respect the BJP cadre’s sentiments and make way for a BJP chief minister.
What could possibly sweeten the deal for Shinde? Maybe some meaty portfolios for him in the state as a deputy CM and ministerial posts in the Centre as only one out of his seven MPs has been inducted in the Council of Ministers so far.
The delay in announcing the next chief minister may be explained by the possibility of BJP taking its time in bringing Shinde around. It won’t want to offend the Maratha community in any way, and in fact would want Shinde to propose the name of Fadnavis as the next chief minister.
Can the BJP do that? For the sake of respecting the public mandate, BJP must succeed.
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