Tesla's U.S. market share dropped to a near eight-year low in August as buyers chose electric vehicles from a growing stable of rivals over the aging lineup offered by CEO Elon Musk's company, according to data from research firm Cox Automotive shared exclusively with Reuters.
The decline highlights the threat from automakers ramping up EV incentives at a difficult time for the industry. Analysts expect an EV sales bump to continue through September in the United States, then drop when federal tax credits expire at the end of the month, raising financial pressure on Tesla and other automakers.
Tesla, which once held more than 80% of the U.S. EV market, accounted for 38% of the total EV sales in the United States in August, the first time it has fallen below the 40% mark since October 2017, when it was ramping up production of the Model 3, its first mass market car, according to early data from Cox.
While other automakers are rolling out new EVs, Tesla has turned its focus to building robotaxis and humanoid robots, delaying and cancelling plans for cheaper electric vehicle models.
Much of Tesla's trillion-dollar valuation hangs on that bet. The company's board on Friday proposed an unprecedented $1 trillion pay package for Musk that, apart from other operational milestones, is pegged to Tesla's value rising to $8.5 trillion over the next decade.
For now, Tesla's core auto business remains its money maker. Its last new model was the Cybertruck pickup that rolled out in 2023 with nothing of the success of its Model 3 midsize sedan or Model Y midsize SUV. Tesla has refreshed the Model Y, once the world's best-selling car, but the changes failed to live up to expectations, and Tesla is on track toward a second year of sales decline.
"I know they're positioning themselves as a robotics, AI company. But when you're a car company, when you don't have new products, your share will start to decline," Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox's director of industry insights, said in an interview with Reuters.
Cox has more complete data for July, when Tesla's market share fell to 42% from 48.7% in June. The drop was the sharpest since March 2021, around the time when Ford launched its Mustang Mach-E EV, according to a Reuters analysis of the data.
Musk's right-wing political work and association with President Donald Trump also has hurt the brand. Musk helped guide Trump's efforts this year to downsize and reshape the U.S. government but left the administration in May and had a falling out with the Republican president.
Sales of new EVs jumped more than 24% month over month in July to 128,268, according to the Cox data, driven by the looming end of a $7,500 tax credit for EVs and attractive deals. Tesla saw sales rise 7% to 53,816, even as its market share fell.
In August, Tesla's growth slowed to 3.1%, and the broader market grew by 14%, the preliminary data showed.
'ATTRACTIVE OFFERINGS'
For years, Tesla as the market leader was able to increase sales rapidly and command a premium price for its vehicles, allowing it to rake in profits. But with weakening sales and a host of competitors, Tesla has had to cut prices in recent years, squeezing its margins and worrying investors.
The falling share reveals Tesla's increasingly difficult choice of supporting sales using higher, profit-destroying incentives for buyers or maintaining profits and giving up market share.
The July data showed rivals outgrowing Tesla. Hyundai, Honda, Kia and Toyota rolled out higher incentives than Tesla and drove up EV sales between 60% and 120%, boosting market share.
"These legacy manufacturers are all benefiting from this sense of urgency, and they're able to have attractive offerings for their vehicles - and it's working," Streaty said. "I think we're going to continue to see this momentum through September."
Competition against Tesla has turned fierce at EV dealer lots.
While scouring for a car for everyday use last month, Topojoy Biswas, a 41-year-old tech worker in the San Francisco Bay area, was greeted with a range of deals, including zero down payment and zero interest rates, from various EV dealers.
Instead of the Toyota Camry he initially was eyeing, Biswas bought a Volkswagen ID.4, VW's competition to the Model Y, lured by an attractive lease price and an offer of free fast-charging. Volkswagen sales rose more than 450% in July from the previous month.
"It felt like the deal of the market," Biswas said.
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