President Donald Trump’s standing with young men has slipped since he won back the White House, according to two recent surveys cited by Newsweek, a warning sign for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
Trump made notable inroads with men aged 18 to 29 in the 2024 election, a group he had lost in 2020. CNN’s exit polls showed Trump edging former Vice President Kamala Harris among men 18–29 by one point, 49% to 48%. In 2020, he lost the same group to former President Joe Biden by 11 points, 52% to 41%, according to CNN’s exit polls cited by Newsweek.
What the new polling says
The Harvard Youth Poll released in December found Gen Z men were broadly unhappy with Trump’s job performance: 62% disapproved and 32% approved, Newsweek reported. The poll surveyed 2,040 adults aged 18–29 from November 3–7, 2025, with a margin of error of +/- 2.94 percentage points.
Newsweek also cited the University of Chicago’s GenForward survey, which reported a similar pattern: 34% of men approved of Trump’s performance, while 55% disapproved.
The midterm stakes: losses, but no obvious alternative
Why it matters for the GOP is straightforward: every House seat and a third of the Senate will be on the ballot in 2026, and Trump’s approval ratings often function as political gravity for down-ballot candidates.
But the data also points to a complication Democrats can’t celebrate away. In the same Harvard Youth Poll cited by Newsweek, young voters’ views of congressional Democrats were deeply negative as well — 24% approval, 71% disapproval — suggesting drift away from Trump does not automatically convert into a Democratic surge.
That creates a more volatile electorate than the usual “swing to the opposition” storyline: less of a realignment, more of a sour mood with both parties. The party that wins 2026 may be the one that turns disapproval into turnout — and convinces low-propensity young voters they’re being heard, not just targeted.
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