OPEC+ members are set to approve another small output hike for December when they meet online on Sunday, according to delegates, as the group cautiously continues reclaiming market share.
Key members led by Saudi Arabia are expected to ratify the revival of roughly 137,000 barrels a day of halted production at the meeting that starts at 5 p.m. Vienna time, the delegates said. The level would maintain the pace of small increases already announced for October and November.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are drip-feeding the return of 1.65 million barrels a day halted two years ago, after rapidly restarting another layer of production earlier this year. They’re going ahead despite signs that a long-awaited surplus is emerging, and warnings of a bigger glut next year.
The meeting takes place against a backdrop of increased pressure on Russia, the co-leader of the alliance, after the US sanctioned its two largest oil producers last month in a major escalation. While the move helped support prices after they dropped to a five-month low, one delegate said it’s too early for OPEC+ to gauge the overall market impact of the measures.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman heads later this month to Washington to meet President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called on OPEC to help bring down fuel prices.
Brent crude futures are down about 13% this year, settling below $65 a barrel on Friday. As well as the sanctions on Russia, they’ve also drawn support from a one-year truce on trade tariffs reached last week between Washington and Beijing.
OPEC+’s actual output increases have fallen significantly short of the advertised volumes, as some members atone for earlier overproduction and others struggle to pump more, limiting the impact on the market.
OPEC+ has repeatedly said that its decision to revive production this year — despite industry-wide warnings of a price slump — has been driven by “healthy market fundamentals” and low inventory levels. The resilience of prices for much of the year, even as the group restored a 2.2 million-barrel supply tranche a year early, partly validated their stance.
Yet there are increasing signs that, with demand in top consumer China cooling and supply across the Americas booming, the world market is now tipping into oversupply. Top trading houses like Trafigura Group say the excess has arrived, pointing to an accumulation of barrels on the world’s tanker fleet.
The International Energy Agency in Paris predicts that world supplies could exceed demand this quarter by more 3 million barrels a day, and then balloon to an unprecedented glut next year, at least on paper. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast further price losses below $60 per barrel.
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