Last week’s deadly earthquakes rocked a region of Myanmar already shattered by years of brutal conflict, exacerbating one of the world’s most overlooked wars and making relief efforts even more perilous, the Wall Street Journal reported.
A war-torn landscape meets disaster
Myanmar’s civil war began in 2021 after the military toppled the country’s elected government. Pro-democracy activists, mostly young and urban, joined forces with long-standing ethnic militias to resist the junta’s rule. Over the past year, rebel forces advanced deep into the country’s central regions—areas that were struck hardest by the recent 7.7 magnitude quake. Nationwide, more than 3,000 people have died.
Sagaing province, the quake’s epicenter, has suffered the most from the junta’s violent counteroffensives, including airstrikes and village burnings. Nearly a third of Myanmar’s 3.5 million displaced citizens were already in Sagaing before the earthquake hit. Now, the dual shock of war and natural disaster is pushing communities to the brink.
Blocked aid, broken bridges
Heavy destruction has been reported in Sagaing’s main city of 300,000 people. Satellite images show that two key bridges linking Sagaing to Mandalay have been badly damaged, hampering rescue operations. Telecommunication blackouts and road collapses are making it difficult to assess the full extent of the damage.
Aid groups fear the junta will obstruct humanitarian access to rebel-held areas, as it has in the past. An aid convoy from the Red Cross Society of China was reportedly fired upon by junta troops while en route to Mandalay. The junta claimed it had fired warning shots because the convoy did not stop in a conflict zone.
“If aid goes through the junta, we know it will never reach the people in dire need,” said Yanghee Lee, a former U.N. envoy and co-founder of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar.
A shaky cease-fire amid chaos
The disaster prompted several warring factions to temporarily pause fighting. The shadow government, known as the National Unity Government, and the powerful Three Brotherhood Alliance of rebel armies declared cease-fires. The junta announced a pause in military operations until April 22, though airstrikes continued in the quake’s immediate aftermath.
Security experts say the earthquake may not change the war’s trajectory, but it could slow the junta’s attempts at a military resurgence. The military is grappling with a conscription crisis and what analysts call “catastrophic leadership.” Damaged infrastructure could further impede its operations.
“The earthquakes struck at its core centres of control,” said Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group. “A chaotic response to a crisis that affects its own inner circle will be impossible to hide.”
No clear path to peace
With no diplomatic resolution in sight, the quake has underscored both the vulnerability of Myanmar’s population and the entrenched stalemate between the military and its opponents. Aid remains slow, and the people caught between disaster and dictatorship continue to suffer.
“These communities are already on the edge,” said Morgan Michaels of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Any disruption on top of that is a matter of survival.”
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