Israel’s vaunted air shield tested as Iran rains down missiles

Iran has also launched hundreds of drones, which have been more easily intercepted.

“We have some good defense systems, but they’re not hermetically sealing the skies,” Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, told ABC on Sunday. “About 10% to 15% of these ballistic missiles get through.”

That’s in line with the Israeli military’s expected “leakage rate.” The US, while not joining Israel in striking Iran, is helping its ally intercept Tehran’s missiles, with each wave costing millions of dollars to defend against.

The attacks by Iran since Friday have been far deadlier and more damaging than when the Islamic Republic fired missiles and drones at Israel in April and October last year.

Back then, Iran concentrated mostly on military and intelligence targets. This time around, its firing larger numbers of projectiles and more are heading toward civilian areas.

Israel has faced barrages of missiles and drones before from Iran-backed groups such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. But neither possesses the sophisticated ballistic projectiles fired by Iran, which travel at much faster speeds, carry heavier explosives, can maneuver mid-air and spend much of their flying time outside the Earth’s atmosphere, making them difficult to intercept.

On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Israelis there would be further attacks in the coming days from Iran and urged them to rush to bomb shelters when air-raid sirens sound or they get phone alerts.

Stopping Iran from firing missiles is a top priority for the IDF. It has tried to target launch sites since Friday and officials have said that roughly a third — or 120 — of them have been taken out.

Netanyahu says Israel is in “an existential campaign” that aims to set back Iran’s nuclear program by years, if not forever. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Israel will “pay a very heavy price” for its strikes, which have killed 224 people, including top generals and atomic scientists, according to the Iranian government.

Iran still has thousands of missiles left that can reach Israel, National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi told Israel’s Army Radio on Monday.

That’s more than the figure of 2,000 suggested by comments from many Israeli officials in recent weeks. Yet, even if the lower number is accurate, Iran can still launch salvos for several days, if not weeks.

One major advantage for Israel is that it has blunted the firepower of Hezbollah and Hamas in its wars with them since October 2023.

Around 2011, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak said 500 people could be killed in Israel by retaliatory attacks if his government hit Iranian nuclear sites. But he included rockets from Hezbollah and Hamas in his assessment.

Even a 90% rate of interception doesn’t mean life continues as normal for Israelis. Schools have closed at least through this week, and more than 100,000 people are stranded abroad after the country’s airspace was closed on Friday.

There’s also the steep expense of the interceptions, even if the government says the damage from failing to stop missiles would be much costlier. Each of Israel’s Arrow interceptor missiles, the ones typically needed to shoot down ballistic projectiles, costs around $2 million to $3 million. Often, more than one is launched toward each ballistic missile to increase the chances of it being hit.

In April last year, Bloomberg reported that it probably cost Israel — as well as the American, British, French and Jordanian air forces — around $1.1 billion to foil Iran’s attack. That was for a few hours’ work.

This conflict has already lasted much longer. And there’s no sign of a let up yet.