Inside Ukraine’s drone strategy as US support wavers

Even before the new initiative, drones had become the dominant weapon in Ukraine’s arsenal. Ukrainian military officials say unmanned systems now inflict about 70 percent of all casualties on both sides — outpacing the damage done by tanks, mortars, and artillery.

While American-supplied systems like Patriot interceptors and HIMARS rockets remain vital, Ukraine’s expanded drone program aims to blunt Russian offensives even in the absence of steady US support. As Private Artem, a Ukrainian drone squad commander, put it: "It’s not man against man anymore."

The Ukrainian-made drones — often assembled from commercially available Chinese parts — include small, first-person-view (FPV) aircraft packed with explosives. Pilots use video feeds for precision strikes against Russian vehicles, bunkers, and troops. Other drones are designed to drop bombs or extend communication links for coordinated attacks.

Innovation born of necessity

Ukraine’s focus on unmanned systems reflects not just strategic foresight but a growing manpower problem. After three years of gruelling war, recruitment has slowed, and draft evasion has become widespread. While drones still require human operators — typically a pilot, navigator, armourer, and retransmission specialist — recruiting soldiers for these roles is easier than finding infantry willing to endure trench warfare.

By saturating a belt of land roughly 18 miles deep behind Russian lines with reconnaissance and strike drones, Ukrainian forces hope to prevent Russian troop concentrations and massed assaults. The drones, capable of speeds up to 80 miles per hour, offer a cost-effective means to maintain pressure on the enemy with minimal Ukrainian casualties.

“The fair assessment is that it is working,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who credited the drones for slowing Russia’s winter offensive.

Results on the ground

Since launching the expanded Line of Drones strategy, Ukraine has seen concrete gains. According to DeepState, a military analytics group, Russia’s territorial advances shrank dramatically over the winter — from 279 square miles captured in November to just 51 square miles in March.

The Ukrainian military plans to build four full drone regiments, expanding each from about 700 soldiers to 2,500. These units will operate a mix of FPV drones, bomb-dropping drones, and unmanned ground vehicles equipped with machine guns. The goal, according to Achilles Regiment commander Yuriy Fedorenko, is nothing less than “covering the whole front line” with drones.

In tests last year during a shortage of artillery shells, Ukrainian drone units successfully disrupted Russian advances near Chasiv Yar. Drones proved not only cheaper than artillery — $500 to $750 each, compared to around $3,000 per shell — but also highly effective in precision strikes.

Global attention and lessons for the future

Ukraine’s innovations are not going unnoticed. The US Marine Corps recently formed its first experimental attack drone squad modelled on Ukraine’s FPV drone units. Other militaries around the world are closely watching Ukraine’s ability to adapt and sustain its defences even under conditions of extreme uncertainty.

Still, drone warfare carries its own risks. Drone crews, though sheltered miles behind the front, are not immune to enemy detection. Russian drones regularly hunt Ukrainian operators, leading to dangerous cat-and-mouse encounters even far from direct combat.

In one recent mission in northeastern Ukraine, a Ukrainian drone team caught a lone Russian soldier in the open; moments later, the video feed showed the drone striking its target at close range. Later that day, a Russian drone buzzed the launch site, forcing the Ukrainians to scramble for cover as it exploded nearby.

A battle for survival

At a time when Ukraine’s traditional sources of strength — manpower, heavy artillery, and foreign military aid — are under strain, its growing reliance on drones offers a new form of resilience. Yet the future remains deeply uncertain. Whether Trump’s cease-fire talks yield peace or Washington cuts off weapons deliveries, Ukraine’s drone strategy will be crucial in keeping the fight alive.

For Ukrainian soldiers and commanders, the mission remains clear: adapt, innovate, and survive.