A meeting between Xi Jinping, President of China and Vladimir Putin, President of Russia in Uzbekistan is likely to provide the two leaders an opportunity to showcase their version of a viable alternative to the current world order led by the United States of America.
Relations of both China and Russia with the US have been damaged in view of the Taiwan crisis and the war in Ukraine. Their meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on September 15 comes on the eve of the eight-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit that includes India, the Central Asian countries, and Pakistan. While Iran is likely to join as the ninth member, the summit will also be attended by other Asian countries including Turkey, a key member of NATO.
However, Western commentators see the Xi-Putin meeting coming at a time of weakness for both leaders as Russia suffers losses in Ukraine and China faces an economic slowdown and rising pressure from the US on Taiwan. According to them, with Russian forces on the retreat in Ukraine and Moscow facing increased western sanctions, all eyes will be on whether Xi offers Putin new diplomatic guarantees and economic lifelines.
The SCO summit will allow the Chinese and Russian leaders to show to the world that despite attempts by the US, neither country has been marginalised.
Just and equitable order
In an article published in a Kazakh newspaper, Xi said China and Russia should “jointly push for an international order that is more just and more equitable.”
Last week, Putin attacked US-led democracies at an economic forum in Vladivostok. Participants at the forum included Myanmar’s sanctioned coup leader Min Aung Hlaing and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
“Western countries are seeking to preserve yesterday’s world order that benefits them and force everyone to live according to the infamous ‘rules,’ which they concocted themselves,” Putin said.
This will be the first in-person meeting between the Chinese and Russian presidents since they met in Beijing during the Winter Olympics in February 2022. The meeting, at which they declared a partnership “without limits,” came on the eve of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine.
The Kremlin said the relationship was crucial for both leaders to deal with the challenge posed by the US.
The meeting with Putin comes barely a month before the crucial 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) due in the middle of October 2022 where Xi will seek a record third term as party leader.
However, the SCO summit has also gathered special significance in the atmosphere of the Ukraine war and attempts by the US and western countries to isolate Russia with sanctions.
Although many consider the SCO as more symbolism than substance, economic ties within the group have become crucial. As inflation surges around the globe, Russia is a source of cheap energy for members like India.
China’s trade ties with Moscow have expanded after the US sanctions. Russia’s exports to China rose by about 50 percent to $40.8 billion in the first five months of the year, including big increases in oil and gas. Xi’s meeting with Putin will send a very clear signal that China's tilt was toward the side of Russia in the conflict, experts said.
According to the Kremlin, Xi and Putin will discuss the war in Ukraine and other “international and regional topics” at their meeting.
Western observers said the stakes are rising for both Xi and Putin. They point out that in recent days, Putin has seen Ukraine push back Russian forces and retake large swathes of land, while Xi has been under pressure to adopt stronger measures to prevent Taiwan from boosting relations with the US and its allies.
Trade ties
China has so far avoided doing anything that would make it subject to US sanctions or help Russia win the war, even as Beijing provides Putin with diplomatic support and increased trade. Some experts said China’s interest in helping Russia appears more geared toward rebutting US moves that could also one day be used against Beijing.
Putin aims to use the talks with Xi to expand trade with China and obtain more industrial and technological imports to fill the gap in the absence of Western goods because of sanctions.
China sourced almost 40 percent of its coal imports from Russia this year, up from about 30 percent during the same period last year. China also snatched up Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments at a hefty discount as most other importers refused the fuel. LNG deliveries in August 2022 surged to the highest level in about two years.
Modi is also likely to have a series of meetings at the SCO, including one with the Russian President. Like most countries, India, too, will keep a close watch on the outcome of the Xi-Putin meeting and its implications.
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