The King of Bhutan comes calling in delicate times

Kwatra, who visited Bhutan in January this year, days after officials from China and Bhutan held wide-ranging talks on the settlement of their border, called the Indo-Bhutan ties a “time-tested strategic relationship”.
On the specific question of Doklam, the foreign secretary said that “India closely follows all issues related to security issues”.

Again, on the reported swap of land between China and Bhutan where China wants certain parts of Doklam in western Bhutan, in return for giving up its claim on the Sakteng WildLife Sanctuary in eastern Bhutan, Kwatra stuck to his official line without revealing much.

There is a good reason for this warmth, as well as introspection. Since the opening up of Bhutan in 2008, when it became a constitutional democracy, the aspirations of the youth have soared ― it is no longer India, as was traditionally the case, that holds their attention, but the Gulf, Australia, South East Asia and the world at large. Its young population ― ranked the happiest country in the world ― cannot but not be enamoured of its biggest neighbour and economic superpower, China.

The point here is just how palatable is this newly emerging equation to India? Last month, the Prime Minister of Bhutan, Lotay Tshering, ruffled Indian feathers when he told Belgian Daily La Libre in an interview: ''There are three of us. There is no big or small country, there are three equal countries, each counting for a third.''

He was responding to a question on China’s role, six years after the Indian Army and China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) faced off for 73 days in Bhutan’s Doklam plateau. Bhutan’s suggestion that Beijing has an equal say in finding a resolution to the dispute over the high-altitude plateau, which New Delhi believes has been illegally occupied by China, could hardly be a welcome view in India.

Bhutan is a strategically important country for India and the defence and security ties between the two sides have witnessed significant expansion in the last few years.

The Doklam plateau is considered an important area for India’s strategic interest. The standoff at the Doklam tri-junction involving India, China and Bhutan, began in 2017 after China tried to extend a road in an area that Bhutan claimed belonged to it. India had strongly opposed the construction as it would have impacted its overall security interests, most notably the Siliguri corridor, also known as the Chicken's Neck. The Indo-China face-off was resolved following several rounds of talks.

Since then, Bhutan and China, that do not have formal diplomatic relations, have nonetheless arrived at their own equation, which some observers in New Delhi have found a bit ‘odd’. In October 2021, Bhutan and China signed an agreement on a ‘three-step roadmap’ to expedite negotiations to resolve their festering boundary dispute.

Bhutan shares an over 400-km-long border with China and the two countries have held over 24 rounds of boundary talks in a bid to resolve the dispute.

“If you look at the map of Bhutan, there are no changes in the lines. But India needs to acknowledge the reality. Since completing a successful transition from an absolute hereditary monarchy to a constitutional monarchy with a bicameral elected parliament in 2008, marking the final step in the transition to a parliamentary democracy, Bhutan, like India, too has become aspirational,” Lt Gen RK Sharma (Retd), former Adjutant General of India, told Moneycontrol.

China’s new construction on the Bhutanese side, say Indian security experts, can dominate the Siliguri corridor, which is India’s connection with the North East. China has land borders with 14 countries and has resolved border ties with 12, save India and Bhutan.

Which makes this visit a bit extra special. According to Gen Sharma, Bhutan’s Prime Minister was merely stating facts. “I wouldn’t read much into what PM Tshering has said. He is an elected PM and represents the aspirations of his people. What he is saying is that the border is a tri-junction; so, how can you exclude China out of the agreement? China and Bhutan have held 24 rounds of boundary talks since 1984. At the Expert Group Level, the two countries had 10 rounds of negotiations.”

Some experts suggest that Bhutan could be going the Nepal way, a long-standing Indian ally with religious and cultural connections, which has seemingly grown close to China. Former RAW chief, AS Dulat, told Moneycontrol, “If Bhutan is leaning towards China, then we need to introspect. Why is it happening? Obviously, somebody is unhappy with us and so is leaning across to a rival.”

Dulat, one of India’s best-known spymasters, quoted from his memoir, A life in the shadows, “Bhutan’s then King, Jigme Singye Wangchuck, warned India of pressures from China in 1999.’’ He says the former king’s words were ‘prophetic’ about India-China tensions in Doklam and the build-up of infrastructure by China that has followed. He also says that New Delhi’s ‘muscular policy’ on a range of issues, including the situation in Kashmir, and tough foreign policy in the neighbourhood led to ‘failures’.

According to the book, Dulat, who visited Thimphu for three days in 1999, spent time with the then king, known as ‘K4’, who abdicated in favour of his son, King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, in 2005.

“Democracy is coming sooner rather than later. But (the Indian establishment) is making things a little difficult for us. The Chinese are breathing down our necks,” Dulat paraphrased the former king as telling him during the visit, adding that the king was convinced the problems with China would ‘only increase’ if India ‘pushed’ Bhutan too much. Dulat said that he believed the former king was referring to Chinese pressure at the time to conclude the border settlement with Bhutan. He also said that the king was convinced that as Bhutan grew more democratic, there would be more engagement with China on the issue.

Asked if India was playing the Big Brother with Bhutan, Dulat said “sometimes”.

This view is backed by some others like Gen Sharma, who believes that Indian media, thankfully not the government, “has done a lot of damage by pointing repeatedly to the huge amounts given by India to Bhutan in pursuit of development. That attitude is wrong and big brotherly. China can pay all that money in a single cheque, which India has been handing out for decades”.

India has been providing assistance to Bhutan for implementation of its successive ‘Five Year Plans’ since 1961. New Delhi’s assistance towards Bhutan’s XII Five-Year Plan (2018-23) was Rs 4,500 crore for various multi-sectoral projects, small development projects and direct budgetary support.

There has been significant cooperation between the two sides in the area of hydropower projects, as the Indian foreign secretary announced on Tuesday.

India has consistently been Bhutan’s top trading partner, and remains the leading source of investments in Bhutan. In November 2021, India formalised the opening of seven new trade routes for Bhutan’s bilateral and transit trade with India and new market access was provided for allowing formal export of 12 agri-products from Bhutan to India.

India sent special assistance to Bhutan during the COVID-19 pandemic when it became the first country to receive Covishield vaccines from India.

Veteran Indian diplomats counsel patience and affection between the two sides. Former Indian Ambassador, Rajiv Bhatia, currently Distinguished Fellow at think-tank Gateway House, told Moneycontrol, “India-Bhutan relations are special, and we need to persevere with it patiently and with a great deal of care. I saw the Bhutanese PM’s statement, and on the face of it, I cannot see anything exceptional about a tri-junction accord involving three parties.’’