MC Explainer I What’s behind the crisis in Sudan? Why is the Sudanese army fighting its paramilitary force?

Observers feel that even if the violence ends due to outside pressure, the truce between the two sides will be temporary. Moneycontrol explains what is going on and what's at stake.

Who is fighting whom?

The clashes are between two former allies, the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group, led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, popularly known as Hemedti.

The two generals had worked together to overthrow Sudan’s brutal dictator Omar al-Bashir, who had ruled the country for 30 years.

In 2019, when a popular uprising brought thousands of people to the streets against his misrule, they staged a coup to throw him out of power.

After the coup, a power-sharing council was formed, made up of civilian and military groups.

The proposal was for the new regime to run the country for a few years and oversee a transition to a completely civilian-run government.

But in 2021, Burhan, who had become chief of the power-sharing council, dissolved it and declared he would instead hold elections in 2023.

But there was tension between the two after a December framework agreement elevated Dagalo from being Burhan’s deputy to be his equal.

Why are they fighting now?

The current fighting broke out between the army and the RSF as a result of negotiations over integrating the two forces ahead of the intended restoration of civilian rule.

There was disagreement over which general would be subordinate to the other, and how quickly the RSF would be incorporated into the Sudanese military.

Experts say the hostilities have turned into an existential fight between the two for dominance.

How has been the state of affairs in Sudan before the current violence?

Sudan has a history of turbulence. Bashir who ruled the country for 30 years before his ouster in 2019 had faced a series of violent unrest in the country.

After a prolonged struggle, oil-rich South Sudan had split from the north.

Bashir also faced an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged war crimes in Darfur, the western region which wanted to secede because of neglect by the central authority.

After Bashir’s ouster, Sudan was ruled by an uneasy alliance between the military and civilian groups.

That all ended in 2021, when the power-sharing government was dissolved by armed forces.

What is the RSF?

It is the preeminent paramilitary group in the country, whose leader Dagalo, a former camel-herder, has enjoyed a rapid rise to power.

The RSF evolved from the notorious Janjaweed forces, which were implicated for war crimes during the Darfur conflict in the 2000s when the government used it to put down the rebels.

It was created in 2013 and four years later in the face of an international outcry, a law was passed to legitimise the RSF as an independent security force.

As Dagalo rose to prominence, his business interests grew with help from Bashir, and his family expanded holdings in gold mining, livestock and infrastructure.

But despite being a long-time ally of Bashir, he did not hesitate to join the coup that overthrew him as president when the 2019 uprising broke out.

Who is Burhan?

He is the de facto leader of Sudan. He was the army’s inspector general during the coup that ousted Bashir.

Burhan also rose in prominence during the Darfur conflict as a close ally of Bashir and helped him in putting down the rebellion.

That was also the time when he came in contact with Dagalo.

Both Burhan and Dagalo became close to the Saudi leadership when they commanded separate battalions of Sudanese forces that were sent to serve with Saudi forces during the war in Yemen.

How strategically important is Sudan?

Sudan borders the Red Sea, the Sahel region and the Horns of Africa. Its strategic location and agricultural wealth and minerals have attracted regional players to the country.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have close ties with the RSF and Dogalo, a relationship that was built during the Yemen war.

The two Gulf countries along with the United States and the United Kingdom have formed the “Quad” and have supported mediation in Sudan along with the African Union and the United Nations.

Western powers fear that Russia, which has a strong foothold in the country, could open a military base on the Red Sea—a possibility that was supported by Bashir.

There is also fear in the West that Russia, which has stakes in Sudanese gold mines, was using the money to bankroll its war in Ukraine.

What is the situation of Indians in Sudan?

The External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has been in touch with key players in the region like Saudi Arabia, UAE and the US to coordinate the safety and security of Indians in Sudan. There are about 2,800 Indians in the country. The worry in Delhi has been increased by the recent death of an Indian, Albert Augestine from Kerala, in the ongoing violence.

What to expect in the future?

Despite appeals by regional players asking both generals to step down and return to negotiations, an early cessation of violence seems unlikely.

Since both Burhan and Dagalo are fighting to establish supremacy over the other, they may continue their battle until one of them gains the upper hand.

Several of Sudan’s neighbours like Ethiopia, Chad and South Sudan have also been affected by political upheavals in recent years. A prolonged conflict in Sudan can only add to the instability in this crucial region.