Hollywood’s biggest night is upon us. Years of dreaming and months of campaigning have brought all the nominees to this final moment. The last couple of months have shattered hopes for some, forcing them to make peace with being “happy to be nominated”. In other cases, nominees like Ke Huy Quan have been tearing through the precursor awards (barring a hiccup or two). However, the most fun award races tonight are going to be the ones where there’s either no clear frontrunner, or ones where we have a showdown between two final contenders.
It’s been years since a single movie has dominated awards season as thoroughly as multiversal adventure Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022). Most Oscar pundits have EEAAO set to sweep the Oscars, but it’s not so simple. The response to the movie has been divided along generational lines, with most older traditional voters struggling to understand the basic premise. It’s not unlikely that the Academy, which is still majority older and white, could derail the EEAAO train tonight.
Here are our predictions for some of the top races (also see our predictions for all the other races):
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The supporting actor race is the most surefire bet of the evening. Ke Huy Quan is the comeback story of this year, maybe even of the last decade. He has won every pre-cursor award except the BAFTA, which inexplicably went to Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin (2022), not even the best supporting performance in that movie. Quan has been a delight on the awards circuit - giving thoughtful, joyful, and distinct speeches at each of his wins. The smallest likelihood of an upset here is if the pendulum has swung all the way to the other side with older voters to recognise veteran Judd Hirsch for a show-stopping two-scene performance in The Fabelmans (2022).
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
Could Win: Judd Hirsch
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
This is the most wide open race of the night. The buzz going into awards season was that this was Angela Bassett’s year for her portrayal of grieving monarch Queen Ramonda in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. But Jamie Lee Curtis has emerged as a shaky frontrunner in the last couple of weeks. They’re both effectively “it’s time” awards for good-but-not-great performances. They could split the vote, in which case Kerry Condon might squeeze through for The Banshees of Inisherin, which already happened at the BAFTAs. But if there has to be an upset here, I’m voting for newcomer Stephanie Hsu as Joy/Jobu Tupaki in EEAAO.
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis
Could Win: Kerry Condon
Should Win: Stephanie Hsu
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
In another case of peaking too early, the season started with everyone raving about Brendan Fraser in The Whale (2022), a performance that elevates an otherwise awful movie. But that momentum was stopped by young Austin Butler from Elvis (2022), who can’t seem to shake off the Elvis voice. It’s another generational battle between young and old, but Butler has an edge, given his role speaks to the youth of many of the older voters. If this was an award for the actor with the best body of work in the last year, then that’s easily Colin Farrell who gave great and varied performances in The Batman (2022), Thirteen Lives (2022), and Banshees.
Will Win: Austin Butler
Could Win: Brendan Fraser
Should Win: Colin Farrell
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
This is the battle of the season. Blanchett has already won two Oscars and has pretty much unlocked the Meryl Streep level where every outing is an automatic nomination. She is simply unbelievable as conductor Lydia Tár in the eponymous Tár (2022), a masterclass performance that will be studied for years to come. But this is Yeoh’s year, and with a performance that caps her five-decade long career. All too often the Academy has ignored genre movies and those who work in them, but hopefully not this time.
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh
Could Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh
ALSO READ: 95th Oscars: Who will win the technical and the creative awards?
BEST DIRECTOR
This category most exemplifies the young vs old, new vs traditional narrative that defines this Oscar year. On the one hand, we have the single most defining director of modern Hollywood, Steven Spielberg, with his origin story The Fabelmans (2022). But on the other hand, we have the Daniels, whose last movie centered around a farting corpse. The edge goes to the Daniels who have been sweeping all the guilds, including the Director’s Guild, which is Spielberg’s home turf.
Will Win: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
Could Win: Steven Spielberg
Should Win: Todd Field
BEST PICTURE
The biggest award of the night is determined by preferential voting, which favours the most liked movie overall and disadvantages polarizing movies like EEAAO (which is likely to be either first or last on most ballots). There is a scenario in which aerial crowd-pleaser Top Gun: Maverick (2022), which is likely in the top three positions on most ballots, could be a surprise winner. The sequel, which was held for two years during the pandemic, brought audiences back to cinemas for a truly big screen experience. A win for Maverick, while upsetting for the EEAAO fanbase, would be a win for Hollywood and the movies.
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
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