Despite ruckus, govt may last its full term: Yogendra Yadav

Yogendra Yadav, political analyst gives a ring-side view of the huge amount of tumult that is brewing in New Delhi, in an interview to CNBC-TV18.

Here is the edited transcript of the interview on CNBC-TV18. Q: What is the end game in your eyes to what is brewing in Delhi for the last 48 hours?
A: Not withstanding whatever they (Opposition) have agreed with the Speaker, the Opposition would find it very hard to give up the temptation to use Coalgate Scam - as it is being called now, to not disrupt Parliament. That's exactly what has happened. It doesn't seem Parliament would function today and there is a real possibility of the entire session being washed out.
This to the BJP looks like a very rare opportunity to point finger directly at the Prime Minister because he was the coal minister for a significant period which has been scanned by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG). They want to point fingers at him; they do realize that his honest image has been one of his biggest asset and the party's asset.
They want to attack that and they know that a discussion in Parliament would not serve their purpose; so a lot of noise about it without a necessary discussion, it is the strategy what BJP appears to be aiming at. They do realize that if it comes to a parliamentary discussion, the government would point out the fact that this is not a policy they had initiated.
The government would also place all the letters written by BJP chief minister of that time to the government demanding this policy's continuation. They would place all that on the table also from the Left. So that doesn't look to be the best strategy for Opposition. It seems to me that the final phase which usually begins one year before the general election has begun somewhat early and we are likely to see a lot of games of this kind. That unfortunately appears to be the case right now. Q: There has even been some threat that the BJP members of Parliament might all go on mass resignation. Earlier we have discussed this possibility of an election in 2013 but now that you say that kind of preparatory work has started, do you think the chances of an early election have been raised because of the hostilities that have erupted over the last week?
A: I am not persuaded. I know this possibility has been discussed for long and my opinion has been that weak government actually tends to last longer. A weak government would see to it that they last till the very end of their tenure.
If you remember the situation of the Narasimha Rao government in 1994-95-96. It was a very weak government, seem to be in its last leg, but the government dragged because a weak government wants to extend its tenure. I am not sure as yet if the BJP would play the final card of asking its MPs to withdraw. This is again not unprecedented.
We do know that  doing it almost two years before the election would have been unusual. BJP has not yet been able to garner much support outside its own fold and they haven't as yet been able to get even all the NDA parties on board on this one. My sense is that they wouldn't want to do it alone.