There is no dearth of political and nationalist films in 2024 with makers trying to cash in the popularity of such subjects in an election year. However, theatre owners have little expectations from such films this year, especially after the weak performance of the recently released Fighter and other movies belonging to the genre.
Exhibitors are hoping for more large film releases featuring big stars like Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan, and Ranbir Kapoor, among others.
"I have low expectations from this year and estimate it to be a complete washout year as compared to 2023, which was one of the best years for Hindi cinema. When was the last time you had over three blockbusters back to back (Jawan, Pathaan, Gadar 2). This year you don't have films starring Shah Rukh Khan or Salman Khan or Ranbir Kapoor," said Vishek Chauhan, a single-screen exhibitor in Bihar.
The first two months of this year have been bad for business as Hrithik Roshan and Deepika Padukone starrer Fighter underperformed, said Ashutosh Agarwal, Director at Starworld Cinemas.
The film, which has references to the 2019 Pulwama attack, the 2019 Balakot airstrike and the 2019 India-Pakistan border skirmishes, collected around Rs 199 crore with a budget of Rs 250 crore.
"This is an election year, so a lot of producers will try and release such films as politicians may use film names when it suits their narrative. But this may not help the film. Movies work on their own dynamics. Films like Uri and The Kashmir Files had those merits. The Kerala Story had that kind of shock value. I am not counting on these types of films," said Chauhan.
The box office has its own rules, and only strong, compelling content wins it over, said producer Anand Pandit.
Upcoming political dramas and nationalist films expected to release this year include Kangana Ranuat-starrer Emergency, Sky Force, and The Untold Story of C Sankaran Nair, among others. Sunny Deol starrer Lahore 1947 went into production this year.
Political films, a mixed bag
Main Atal Hoon and Operation Valentine are among the films with nationalist themes that released this year but failed to drive box office business.
On the other hand, Article 370, which released on February 23 with a budget of Rs 20 crore, recorded a business of over Rs 65 crore.
"Political and nationalist content has a distinct and edgy appeal, which keeps the audiences engrossed and offers them tremendous satisfaction. Also, since the genre is not as prevalent as other genres like action, romance or comedy, there is a significant anticipation around it, said Gautam Dutta, Co-CEO, PVR INOX.
The success of The Kashmir Files triggered more people to make such type of films as the return on investment is attractive, said Chauhan, adding that only a few films in this genre taste success. "I had told my distributor that the film The Vaccine War will bomb in theatres. The previous film from the maker was a blockbuster and this film did not do even Rs 10-crore business."
The maker of films like The Kashmir Files, The Tashkent Files, Vivek Agnihotri's The Vaccine War, which released in September last year in theatres, was declared a flop as it collected around Rs 9 crore worldwide with a budget of Rs 10 crore.
Weak business
"Business has been bad for us as we had a lot of expectations from Fighter. It worked for a few days then sat at a low level. Also, what people need to understand is that it is not how much money a film makes to reach profitability, it is how fast it can do it. Time is of great essence in the success of films. A film making Rs 300 crore in one year versus a film collecting Rs 300 crore in a week and any exhibitor will choose the latter. That's the kind of film that gets me those footfalls. And that was not the case with Fighter," Chauhan said.
In terms of footfall and occupancy, the numbers will remain flat in January, February and March as compared to the same period last year due to lack of tentpole releases.
"In 2024 so far, numbers are less than what they were in 2023 because last year during this period we had Shah Rukh Khan starrer Pathaan and this year we haven't had such a release. We do not have tentpole films like Jawan, Pathaan, Gadar 2 this year," said Amit Sharma, Managing Director, Miraj Cinemas.
Pathaan had collected over Rs 600 crore in India alone and had turned things around for multiplexes as well as single-screen cinemas. "Pathaan in this period (January-March) was like a saviour. Exhibitors in the smaller centres had seen that kind of collections after 3-4 years. I don't see any Hindi film repeating that kind of success this year," said Chauhan.
India box office business is estimated to decline 30 percent versus last year due to the impact of the Hollywood writers' strike, a muted pipeline of Hindi films and not much traction from regional films till elections, said Karan Taurani, senior vice-president, Elara Capital.
He added that the Hindi box office will decline 20 percent, Hollywood by 50 percent and regional film box office business will decline 20 percent in 2024. "Occupancy in the first two months (of 2024) in multiplex chains has been in the range of 17-18 percent, which is below par. Going ahead, it will improve but annual occupancy may not be more than 23 percent for the full year."
The India box office in 2023 grossed over Rs 12,000 crore, surpassing 2019's Rs 10,948 crore mark.
"The future is not bright in the next six months for the box office. I don't see big openers this year. Even for my colleagues the situation is bad as shows are getting cancelled. Exhibitors are feeling the pinch," said Chauhan.
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