Govt still on life support; may stay on till 2013: N Ram

Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has hinted at continuing giving outside support to the UPA saying he does not want 'communal forces' to come to power.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, N Ram, former editor-in-chief, The Hindu says the government is still on life support; may stay on till 2013.  "I don’t think SP would want the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to get close to the Congress," he adds.

Below is the edited transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh and Ekta Batra.

Q: Do you think now the government is bailed out, up until 2014?

A: No, not at all, not till 2014 because it is purely expedient. I don’t think SP would want the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to get close to the Congress. But surely in their self interest they want to take this position. The reason could be anything. This time it is to keep communal forces away from forming the government. Actually, BJP is nowhere close to forming a government.

Q: On a hypothetical basis, SP does come in and give the power to the Congress to stay in power till 2014. Post that, how aggressive do you think the Congress could be on reforms going forward? Do you think that what happened a week back would just be a done deal and we are not possibly going to see something more aggressive from the government?

A: They may try. The majority of members of parliament, including many members of the Congress, for example, from Kerala, would be opposed to this. Now, FDI in retail doesn’t have to go to parliament. So, they bypassed it. If it means any bill, any legislation then there is no way it will get through, if it is along these lines.

Q: So, legislative reform is difficult, but executive reform is all that the government can aim for.

A: Executive reforms are possible. But very often the media criticise governments for bypassing parliament. So, they can't do it in too many areas.

Q: Do you think the UPA government or the cabinet is still on life support or do you think that now the chances of it being dislodged are much weaker and it is on slightly firmer ground?

A: It could be dislodged at any time, if both SP and BSP decide that they no longer need to support them. They only have to invent reasons. These reasons are purely opportunist. On one hand, you are totally opposed to their policies, but you find some reason for supporting them, that’s just a tactic.

At the moment, they decide we want early elections then the UPA is in trouble. So, it is still on life support, but it will maneuver to continue certainly till 2013 because no elections can be held before that. But I wouldn’t put a bet on 2014.

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Q: What is more in favour of the Congress in terms of getting more power from? Would it be to align with the SP at this point in time or would it be BSP? Where exactly would the relationship between the BSP and the Congress stand now?

A: I think BSP will also be looking for tactical advantage. It lost out heavily the last assembly election and wants to come back. You know how fierce Rahul Gandhi was in opposing with the SP. There is no question of BSP because he really targeted Mayawati viciously. So, they seem to want to go out alone in UP, they don’t have a ghost of a charm. So, their interests conflict in Uttar Pradesh.

It is purely a tactical thing for the moment. That moment is prolonged, until the SP decides that we want to go for the kill and we want early elections. But the problem for the SP, in the present configuration of the Lok Sabha, is that Mayawati can supply the numbers. She did quite well in the last Lok Sabha elections.

Q: Do you think we overestimated the political maneuverability of Pranab Mukherjee?

A: President Pranab Mukherjee is a much shrewder political thinker and tactician than people around him. I think he saw that this will run into a lot of opposition and will be a huge gift to the opposition. These policies that market has welcomed or corporate lobbies have welcomed. So, he saw that coming. He has been proved right.

The way I read it is the government is isolated from the people all over the place and you can see that coming, particularly on FDI in retail. There is going to be a huge political impact. Pranab Mukherjee saw that coming.