UPA upbeat on belief that worst of slump is over: Experts

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh presented the report card listing the achievements of the four-year UPA government rule on Wednesday. While presenting the report card, the PM said that he wished to express a deep sense of gratitude to Sonia Gandhi and asserted that India’s relations with the world have improved. "We can legitimately claim the UPA government has taken the country far."

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Manini Chatterjee, Editor, Telegraph said that the government seems to feel the worst is over on the economic front and the government is optimistic that the Food and Land Bills being passed. “I think the UPA-II will complete its term. The government is desperate for the RBI to signal an easing in rates in its June policy because any signal from the RBI is likely to boost investment." Business Standard, political editor, Aditi Phadnis adds, "Though Mayawati and Mulayam Singh opted to stay away. Apart from Oommen Chandy, all the other Chief Ministers were present. So, I don't think the government is in any trouble. What is equally significant that Rahul Gandhi was sitting on the dias not among the audience as before." Below is the edited transcript of the discussion on CNBC-TV18 Q: What was the most significant thing that you noticed? Shereen was just telling us that the most significant thing is probably what Sonia Gandhi said about the Prime Minister and the defence that she provided for him? Phadnis: I heard and sawone or two significant things. What I heard was Sonia Gandhi's plea that legislative action should continue, the feeling of momentary confidence among member of parliaments (MPs) and ministers at her combative tone. This is what I heard.
What I saw was rather different. First of all Sonia Gandhi went trotting up to the food display on her own, which she has never done before. She usually sits down and she is served at the table. So, it was a – to use a modern word it was bonding of one sort.
The other thing that I noticed was that the Prime Minister was completely alone. In fact the finance minister P Chidambaram had to signal to one of the people who were standing there to summon ministers to come and sit next to the Prime Minister. Q: What are the key takeaways – the Prime Minister making a final farewell speech – not a election speech, but a final summation speech of his nine years? Chatterjee: What I found significant was in this mood of gloom and doom, the effort was that the Prime Minister was signaling that the economy is turning around the corner because the he as an economist knows that no amount of rhetoric will really work unless there is actual change in the economic growth of India.
Because of international and various other reasons since last September, when P Chidambaram took over, the decision in foreign direct investment (FDI) and a whole lot of other things and with the crude prices coming down, the government suddenly seems to feel that the worst is over. Q: Looking at signals as far as elections are concerned, because that is what everybody is looking forward to, that is what corporate India is looking forward to. What are the signals that you picked up about the survivability of this government in terms of the attendance of allies and the future that you got from Sonia and Manmohan? Phadnis: I don’t think the attendance of allies or the lag thereof is a significant feature in the continuance of this government. It is true that Mayawati and Mulayam Singh both opted to stay away. It is equally significant that Rahul Gandhi was sitting on the dias and not among the audience, which he has done in the past. However, the Chief Ministers were all there, only Oommen Chandy was missing. So, I don’t think the government is in any trouble. That is not the signal we got from here. Q: Is the government in any sort of trouble? Chatterjee: I think the government is going to complete its full term. The political signal that Sonia Gandhi sent was that these two legislations which are very dear to her – the Land Bill and the Food Security Bill is going to be passed before they go to the polls – whether through the ordinance route or not. So, she made this appeal to the Opposition.
I spoke to some other ministers and they kept saying that this will happen because this is a commitment we have given. They are not saying the same thing about Pension and Insurance Bills.
So, the signal is that they will go through the ordinance route and try to get it passed in either the monsoon session or the winter session, but you can be rest assured that the signal today is that these two bills are going through, either via the ordinance route or bulldozed through parliament. But they are going to get passed.