Winter session: Mamata can't bring down UPA, says Sardesai

Brace for a stormy Winter Session of Parliament. That's the message from Mamata Banerjee to the central government. The Trinamool Congress plans to move a no-confidence motion against the government on the first day of the Winter Session. CNN-IBN’s editor-in-chief Rajdeep Sardesai analyses the entire situation for CNBC-TV18 -- Mamata Banerjee's threat, the support from the Left and the strategy that will be adopted by the SP and the BJP who are still holding their cards close to their chest.

Also read: Mamata plans to 'bowl out' government with her trust vote Below is the edited transcript of his interview Q: The Left has said that they will support the no confidence motion. The SP and the BJP are still holding their cards close to their chest. Do you believe that, Mamata Banerjee can bring this government down? A: I think Mamata Banerjee cannot bring this government down in this winter session of parliament. She can embarrass the government by joining hands with the BJP, the Left and some other parties, in insisting that there be a debate and a vote on FDI in retail under Section 184. That’s the limit of what she can do at the moment. On the vote of confidence, I don’t think any of the critical allies of this government, who are supporting it from the outside particularly the BSP and the SP, are in a mood to bring down this government in this session itself. There is ofcourse the one-upmanship between Mamata and the left. If Mamata moves a vote of no-confidence, will the Left support it? There is a question mark over that as well. So, Mamata needs to create the impression that she is the one who is driving the opposition agenda against the government. Also that she is the one who has the potential to bring down the government. However, the facts and the numbers at the moment work against here when it comes to vote of no confidence. Certainly when it comes to a resolution under Section 184 on FDI in retail, Mamata can join hands with a variety of parties. She can cause severe embarrassment to the government in parliament. Q: While she may not be able to bring the government down. What about the winter session itself? Can we expect any business to get done given the fact that the BJP at this point in time doesn’t seem to be open to any kind of negotiation with the government even though the government has been trying to reach out to them. Do you expect any thaw in the relationship? A: My fear is that the days of sessions of the thaw being broken through dinner and a lunch is over. The era of lunch diplomacy and dinner diplomacy is over, given the kind of intense divide that exists today between the opposition and the government. The fact that several opposition parties and even a section of the government is now eyeing elections in possibly 12 months from now. So, it is going to be tough to break the ice. Every session you have seen in recent times has one major issue that dominates it. Last time it was coalgate, this time there is a chance that FDI in retail will become the issue which will hijack the session. Under what rule will a debate take place, could well take the best part of 7-10 days. So effectively, the government’s room for maneuver is extremely limited. They are worried about their numbers. They can’t take any dramatic decisions that could suddenly embarrass them on the floor of parliament. Yes, the government will try and push in. Possibly the Lokpal Bill will again be introduced to show the government’s intent on anti-corruption laws. Beyond that on the critical issue of those major FDI legislations my sense is that the government will move very cautiously. They will try and create some kind of consensus. I don’t know how that consensus will happen, unless there is a bit of give and take with the opposition. I don’t know what the government really can give the opposition at this moment. Q: What are your Congress Party sources telling you? Is the Congress now gearing up for an election itself? A: Absolutely, a section of the Congress believes that the best case scenario for this government is to ensure that the winter session passes off and then the budget session without hindrance. At least on the 28th February, the government should be able to deliver a budget in which they can make one or two big-ticket announcements. Perhaps create a mood where the government is able to tell the people that look we want to bring you various important pro-people policies. However, the opposition is not letting us function. To push for an autumn election next year that seems to be the mood among a sizeable section of the Congress. They are already setting up election coordination committees, even beginning the process of drafting manifesto. I think once the Gujarat elections are over in December, there will be a section of the Congress that will go into general election mode.